Buy: Valterra
Since its demerger from Anglo American in 2025, Valterra has emerged as a frontrunner in a platinum group metals (PGM) market in transition. The PGM basket has rebased higher in 2025, but the recovery has been driven more by speculative positioning, shifting policy expectations and perceived scarcity than by a broad-based demand rebound. While margins have recovered from 2023 lows, recent price action remains heavily influenced by financial flows rather than fundamentals. US-led ETF inflows and futures activity have amplified volatility and liquidity, particularly in palladium, where ETF holdings have risen sharply, and in platinum, where flows remain volatile despite sizeable inflows. The launch of Guangzhou Futures Exchange contracts may further accelerate price recovery.
Encouragingly, underlying auto demand — across internal combustion engine and hybrid vehicles — has proved more resilient than expected, with key markets still up around 2% in 2025. As the US and EU reassess emissions and fuel-economy regulations, the role of PGMs in powertrains may persist longer than expected. While speculative flows dominate near-term pricing, fundamentals appear firmer than initially assumed.
Against this backdrop, Valterra is a clear sector outlier. Its fully integrated operating model delivers industry-leading cost control and margin resilience.
Sell: Apple
Apple is one of the greatest businesses of all time and we would be happy to have it in any long-term portfolio. However, its valuation vs its growth potential could result in a period of share price underperformance. So we would prefer this kind of exposure through companies with a lower valuation and better growth prospects. Apple is now so large that sustaining double-digit growth has become structurally difficult. Its trailing 12-month operating profit is $133m. At its current scale, even meaningful absolute revenue gains translate into only modest percentage growth. This is most evident in Apple’s core iPhone business, which still accounts for the majority of profits.
Apple’s services business is phenomenal and represents the most attractive long-term growth vector within the group. Services are high-margin, recurring and strategically important. However, while services can grow faster than hardware, they are not large enough to lift the entire company back to sustained double-digit growth. Apple’s earnings are expected to grow at 9%–10% a year over the next three years, a solid but mature growth profile. Against this, the stock trades at a forward earnings multiple of roughly 30. This valuation appears demanding.
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