South Africa is poorly prepared for the anti-immigrant and xenophobic eruption that may be heading our way. We have no experienced leaders at the head of our police and intelligence services. Leaders are factionalised. Resources have been looted. And there is no evidence of a long-term strategy to deal with South Africa’s security threats.
The signs of an eruption waiting to happen are all there, as they were in 2008, 2015 and 2021. Then, the authorities did nothing to ensure the country’s safety. We were caught with our pants down. We seem headed down the same miserable road today.
When xenophobic violence broke out in 2008, the government was unprepared, confused and leaderless. While violence raged in Joburg and surrounding townships for two weeks, the government was silent and did little to nothing. Then president Thabo Mbeki hopped on a plane to an African Peer Review Mechanism meeting in Mozambique.
The South African police, its crime intelligence wing and the spy agencies had all failed to anticipate or spot signs of the violence. At least 62 people died.
In July 2021 the country was rocked by some of the worst violence yet seen in post-apartheid history. At least 354 people died and R50bn was lost to the economy. An expert panel appointed by President Cyril Ramaphosa to look into the events concluded that the police crime intelligence unit was deeply underresourced and hollowed out by vacancies, and had failed to track the orchestration of those riots. It said the broader intelligence apparatus suffered from systemic political factionalism.
The South African Human Rights Commission said in another report that police failed in their basic mandate to detect the planning and execution of the unrest. “There’s also been a breakdown in communication in the police between crime intelligence, the national commissioner and the minister of police,” human rights commissioner Philile Ntuli said.
Anti-immigrant groups March and March and Operation Dudula have been intensifying their efforts. The Zulu nation’s amabutho [warriors] have joined in, armed with spears and knobkieries in scenes reminiscent of South Africa’s political violence in the 1980s and 1990s. These organisations now hold protest marches every day. They have shut down informal trade in the Durban CBD.
More than 80% of the police’s R127bn annual budget goes to personnel costs. The police service says public satisfaction with its policing is below 41%
Meanwhile, foreign nationals are massing at churches and police stations in KwaZulu-Natal. We don’t have a police minister. Firoz Cachalia has been acting in the position while Senzo Mchunu fights corruption allegations. National police commissioner Fannie Masemola is suspended. He is fighting corruption-related charges alongside 12 of his senior colleagues and an alleged gang boss. The head of crime intelligence, Dumisani Khumalo, faces fraud and corruptopm charges. The deputy national commissioner for crime detection, Shadrack Sibiya, is suspended and accused of improperly interfering with the KZN political killings task team, attempting to disband the unit and illicitly ordering the transfer of 121 case dockets to his office.
The fight to gather good criminal intelligence is not just leaderless. It is also underresourced. According to the police presentation to parliament two weeks ago, about 7,500 or 26% of its vehicles are out of service. The stations most affected by car shortages are in, wait for it, KZN and the Northern Cape.
The police service has a R5.8bn shortfall in its ICT modernisation budget. More than 80% of its R127bn annual budget goes to personnel costs. The police service says public satisfaction with its policing is below 41%.
What about spy services? The State Security Agency (SSA) is leaderless and is apparently being restructured after the General Intelligence Laws Amendment Act was signed in 2025. It is being split into separate domestic and foreign intelligence branches, strengthening oversight and addressing previous state capture vulnerabilities. Ambassador Tony “Gab” Msimanga is acting as its director-general.
We don’t know much about the SSA’s activities because seven months ago Ramaphosa suspended inspector-general of intelligence Imtiaz Fazel, the public’s only ears and eyes into the activities of the agency, pending the outcome of an investigation by parliament into his conduct. In March the president forbade Fazel from addressing MPs.
At a time of impending peril, South Africa has no security and intelligence leaders. It has no resources. It has no known long-term strategy to stem and avert threats.
We are on our own.
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