This is by no means the worst of times in South Africa. At the same time, however, you should forgive people for kicking you out of their braai for claiming that we are having the best of it. We are not. Far from it.
This is a time of extreme noise and contestation. It is a time of wild claims, of fears stoked by misinformation and disinformation. It is a time of social media actors, powered by algorithms whose impact we have no real grasp of, unleashing messages of despair and dystopia to push their ideological goals.
As the world contemplates the sobering fact that a global war can be unleashed at any time, South Africa celebrated 32 years of democracy this week. Where are we going? How are we doing?
We’ve failed spectacularly. We have also succeeded beyond our enemies’ expectations. The political settlement of 1994, despite the many naysayers who want you and the world to believe otherwise, was a triumph of the highest order in global statecraft and in restoring humanity to an oppressed people. It freed blacks from the yoke of apartheid. It freed whites from the shame of oppressing another human being. It gave us possibly the most progressive and humane constitution in the world.
This is a triumph we should not allow others to take from us. We did that.
This anniversary of our democracy is more bitter than sweet
Yet, oh how we have failed. The new South Africa has failed to protect its women and children. We are mentioned among the rape capitals of the world. We are well-nigh the murder capital of the world. Anyone who makes an honest living of any sort, like the woman selling fruit and sweets on the street, is subject to violent death at any time.
This is a problem that started at the dawn of democracy and has become worse every year. How can we bestow the term “leaders” on those who sit in government offices when every day children die in gang shootings on the Cape Flats? When farmworkers are murdered?
The economy has consistently floundered since the late 2000s. Joblessness has gone from 21% to an astonishing 32% in 20 years. Black parents falsify their documents or queue for days at “white schools” in Joburg’s suburbs while tens of schools are shut down in Soweto. These parents do not believe their government can give their children a good education. They are voting with their feet.
So, this anniversary of our democracy is more bitter than sweet. We have an unbelievable freedom, an active and voluble citizenry, a beautiful country blessed with mineral wealth. What we do not have is a government that is capable, dedicated and focused.
What happens now and into the next 10 years? Do we continue to celebrate our “miracle of 1994” while living in poverty, squalor and fear? Does corporate South Africa continue to operate while keeping an eye on the ticking time bomb of unemployment, inequality and poverty that we know with certainty will one day explode?
Thankfully, that is not the way it will turn out. We are at a crossroads. The ANC is disintegrating fast. Its toxic former president Jacob Zuma has taken its most corrupt members and most ignorant supporters with him to his MK Party. As for what is left of the ANC, its corrupt members and state officials (police, municipal managers and financial officers and other civil servants) are being exposed and ensnared by the Madlanga Commission.
Too little, too late, yes. But President Cyril Ramaphosa’s “renewal” drive has been helped by KwaZulu-Natal police commissioner Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi’s exposé of police corruption. At the same time, the tripartite alliance of the ANC, the SACP and Cosatu is disintegrating.
The ANC is no longer a “broad church”. In local elections this year and national elections in 2029, it will become a 30%-35% party. This will be punishment for its loss of focus from 2005 onwards when it became infatuated with the personality cult of Zuma and forgot “the people”.
The DA may grow a bit, but it is limited by its failure to enlist black liberals. Its growth will be stunted. It may hover between 25% and 30%. Which means we will still be trapped in the politics of coalition. Astute leaders can, however, build an economic powerhouse out of a government of national unity.
For now, it’s one step forward and one step back. As it has been for 32 years.
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