Early projections suggest that the La Niña weather phenomenon, which brought above-normal rainfall across the summer crop-growing areas of South Africa and much of Southern Africa, leading to higher crop yields, has ended.
What may follow in the 2026-2027 summer crop season, which starts in October 2026, presents some risks. The latest projections from the South African Weather Service (SAWS), the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the International Research Institute for Climate & Society (IRI) suggest that the region will transition into an El Niño weather system in late 2026 and through 2027.
During such weather events, South Africa and the rest of Southern Africa typically receive below-average rainfall. In extreme cases, El Niño can result in drought. The impact of drought conditions on summer grains, oilseeds, fruits, vegetables and grazing veld is typically severe.
A lot remains unknown about the potential severity of the 2026-2027 El Niño system at the moment. In this week’s AgriView, we focus on this matter.
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