It’s easy to fall into the trap of thinking the bright, young, energetic new leaders of the DA have the future sewn up. Not so fast, my friends.
Factionalism, populism, distance from voters, race divisions, too much identification with the ANC … These are just the most obvious of the traps in the path to the 2029 national election.
The biggest one will be if new party leader Geordin Hill-Lewis continues with the unworkable idea that he can run the DA from his office as mayor of Cape Town. Admirable as his loyalty to his constituents is, he needs to realise that he is now the centre of the party. All eyes are on him. He must be present as the leader of the second-biggest party in the country.
Hill-Lewis has made it clear that the opposition benches are not for him and his party. He says he wants to challenge for the presidency and for the DA to run things.
“I am not satisfied with being a junior partner in a [GNU] … Our ambition must be to lead the national government,” he told supporters at the weekend.
That is no longer as distant a dream as it once was. The ANC is collapsing. The race is the DA’s to lose.
For the DA to beat the ANC and grasp the possibility of forming a coalition government of its own, a few key obstacles must be avoided. Departing DA leader John Steenhuisen addressed some of them when he told Business Day that Hill-Lewis should not become captive to factions.
He knows how powerful these factions can be because his departure was engineered by one.
The DA needs a face, a personality, a figure of trust. He must lead the DA in the GNU or in parliament
Steenhuisen began his ministerial term in 2024 by appointing a MAGA-style social media personality with a predilection for posting racially divisive messages as the top official in his office. He must regret his flirtation with that faction, as its members were behind the campaign to discredit him to trigger his ousting.
The other issue is race. It was refreshing to finally hear a DA leader, in the person of Hill-Lewis, say something positive about Mmusi Maimane’s contribution to the party’s growth from when he became leader in May 2015 to just after the 2019 national election. The party’s electoral support declined between 2014 and 2019 (from 22.2% to 20.7%), but this could hardly be blamed on Maimane alone. That did not matter. He was briefed against and presented as weak.
The way he was treated gave many black (and white) liberals pause. The DA’s strategists need to reflect on this deeply. If black liberals continue to find themselves in ActionSA, the IFP and primarily the ANC, the DA’s growth will continue to suffer. Hill-Lewis’s words about Maimane may finally begin that healing process.
The DA should project itself as the natural home of liberals, black and white. Given our country’s history, the DA won’t succeed if the stigma of the past sticks to it.
Hill-Lewis has a few tailwinds to help him along. The GNU is working (mostly) and is beginning to deliver in small ways. The DA’s ministers have thrived in the structure. Hill-Lewis must spur his team on and blame President Cyril Ramaphosa for the failures where he needs to take the fall. That’s the path to success in 2029.
But Hill-Lewis’s determination to stay in Cape Town will derail that. The DA needs a face, a personality, a figure of trust. He must lead the DA in the GNU or in parliament. When minister Siviwe Gwarube registers a victory at the department of basic education or Leon Schreiber announces one of his innovations at home affairs, the party leader must be cheerleading.
Hill-Lewis is the mouthpiece, the guide, of the DA now. When Ramaphosa speaks, people will be looking to Hill-Lewis to react. When Ramaphosa wavers (or is “shocked”, as is his wont), it is Hill-Lewis who must give the line of march to DA supporters.
If he tries to lead from the Cape Town mayoral office, he will be isolated. He will destroy his leadership and damage the DA’s chances for 2029.
With just three years to go, he must be all in.
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