It was deathly quiet on the political front in South Africa last weekend, but don’t fool yourself into thinking that our opposition leaders were not glued to their television sets or rubbing their hands together in glee. They were quiet because they have learnt from President Cyril Ramaphosa, who has shown himself to be partial to the phrase attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte: “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”
The ANC was making a particularly big mistake at the weekend, and it did not need interruption.
The party’s Eastern Cape branch was meant to hold its provincial elective conference. Three members took it to court and, citing numerous instances of fraud and corruption in the compilation of delegates’ names, managed to stop the gathering.
Instead of taking time to reflect on why his party is so riven with division and infighting, provincial chair Oscar Mabuyane warned this was the work of unnamed dark forces that were out to destroy the organisation.
What’s gone wrong with the ANC? At a time when it faces yet another spectacular drubbing at the polls, the party is mired in infighting and conspiratorial thinking. The Eastern Cape is the one province where it still commands power almost absolutely. In 2024 it won a whopping 62.16% of all votes cast in the province, with the DA cantering in at 15% and the EFF in third place at 10%.
The ANC’s infighting and service delivery failures imperil this; Eastern Cape cities have fallen apart because of corruption, as illustrated by the fire in Mthatha last week, when the municipality did not even have fire trucks to deal with the incident. The party is headed for further decline in local government elections later this year.
In Gauteng, the ANC’s Joburg region is in paralysis after the local branch defied its national leaders and demanded the removal of Dada Morero as mayor of the city. The regional chair, Loyiso Masuku, is now installed as deputy mayor (a new position created for her without rhyme or reason just a month ago); she is eyeing the top job and making life as uncomfortable as possible for Morero.
Not that Morero deserves anyone’s sympathy. Residents of Africa’s “world-class city” go for days without water or power. The roads are a disgrace, and Morero is clueless about providing leadership or solutions. As mentioned many times before, his office is stuffed with task teams and “bomb squads” to help him do his job. He is still failing spectacularly.
Municipal coalitions led by parties other than the ANC will dominate the period between 2027 and 2031
The ANC in Joburg is engaged in this damaging public mudslinging even as evidence piles up that it is on track for a hiding later this year. Polling by Frans Cronje’s Social Research Foundation, conducted telephonically among 503 respondents and released last weekend, shows the DA’s share of the Joburg vote has risen 13 percentage points since 2021 to 39%. The ANC has dropped four percentage points to 30% while ActionSA has 10% and the MK Party, in its first outing in nationwide local elections, is at 8%.
Yet, faced with an energetic Helen Zille of the DA running for mayor, the ANC is still happy to embarrass itself and show its divisions, lack of focus and infighting in public. The only reason for this can be that the ANC leaders realise the party is over, and are desperate to feed at the trough for just a few months before change arrives.
These poll results won’t surprise a single decent political analyst or resident. They underline that the trendline established since 2009, in which the ANC’s corruption and distance from the citizenry are driving the electorate towards two choices (stay at home or vote for a party other than the ANC), continues.
So the future is clearer. Municipal coalitions led by parties other than the ANC will dominate the period between 2027 and 2031. The ANC, unable to renew itself unless a vastly different path is followed at its 2027 national elective conference, will continue its electoral decline and death march at the 2029 elections. We will still have a national coalition arrangement, but the balance of forces will have shifted.
In the meantime, expect a factionalised ANC to continue sitting in the corner quietly destroying itself, much to the merriment of its opponents.
