Nelson Mandela Bay (NMB) is the only metro besides Cape Town where the DA got more votes (210,007) than the ANC (207,443) in the 2021 local government election.
It is also the only metro where both parties have exactly 48 seats in the council. The mayoral seat has changed hands eight times under different parties since 2016. NMB ranks among the third-tier metros in the country, but it is historically and politically significant.
It was one of the main landing points for the 1820 British settlers. In the late 20th century it was a hub for anti-apartheid activism and central to the rise of black labour and civic movements. It helped shape the politics of ANC stalwarts such as Govan Mbeki and Raymond Mhlaba. Economically, it was once the heartbeat of the country’s automotive sector, and it contains an important exporting harbour.
Recently the national political focus has been on the country’s water crisis, former DA leader Helen Zille’s mayoral campaign in Joburg and the alarming allegations of the “capture” by criminal cartels of factions in the South African Police Service.
But the campaign for control of NMB is quietly building steam. The city has also been gripped by a water crisis, with cuts and shortages arguably worse than those experienced in Joburg. The outages are caused by deteriorating infrastructure, power outages and a lack of maintenance. The municipality is battling to contain sewage spills and has more than 10,000 streetlights out of order at any given time.
ANC mayor Babalwa Lobishe is under investigation by her own party over the leasing of a R250m transformer to a private company, Coega Steels, for R250,000 per month, and has her hands full fighting internal factional battles. Her administration is buttressed by a coalition with the EFF, with eight seats in the council, and several smaller parties.
The first mayoral candidate out of the blocks for control of the city has been DA councillor Retief Odendaal, who launched his campaign in October. He ran the city for eight months between 2022 and 2023.
Odendaal’s term in office was fleeting, but he argues that it gave him sufficient insight to enable him to fix the metro quickly, should the DA receive enough votes to take control together with a much smaller and more manageable coalition. At the top of his list of priorities is a rapid reconstruction of the city’s administration.
Due to years of political instability and infighting, the city has lost most of its experienced and talented administrators. Where it was once a hub for talented bureaucrats, it now cannot retain the few it has left.
I want to put the interest of the city first, and that means finding the most stable model
— Retief Odendaal
“We’ve seen this brain drain,” says Odendaal, “and seven of the 10 executive director positions are vacant. So there’s no one heading those departments. We’ve lost R1bn in grant funding to the National Treasury just over the past two years. We can’t make progress because there are no competent officials left to turn our departments around and make progress with delivering services.”
The DA this week called for a rapid special investigation into the water and power outages across the city, but the motion was shelved by the ANC and the EFF in council.
The second most pressing concern for Odendaal is to ensure that the city’s finances are stabilised. He says this could be done in a relatively short time, as the city’s financial situation is not as dire as those of other metros in the country.
Up next, the aim will be to begin fixing ageing infrastructure, to set the stage for further investment and economic activity. Odendaal is confident that NMB would attract visitors and professionals — local and international — if it began upgrading infrastructure and delivering services.
“A traffic jam is a 10-minute event for us, so you never have that situation where you spend two hours a day in such a situation. After work you can get the dogs and go for a stroll on the beach. We have 300 days of sunshine here, and 40km of unspoilt beaches. And it really is affordable.
“Tourism is very important. Some other cities have become quite expensive to visit, which creates an opportunity for us. But nobody is marketing the city, and it pains me that some people don’t even know where Nelson Mandela Bay is.”
Odendaal says he is rebuilding party structures across the metro, moving to ensure that DA supporters who stayed at home in 2021 will be enthusiastic enough to vote in the upcoming election.
An outright win will be a tough ask for any party in the city. Would Odendaal consider replicating the national coalition by working with the ANC if the numbers added up to the same as the final tally in 2021? He is hesitant to provide an unequivocal answer, saying stability is most important.
“The reality is that the ANC has been responsible for the mess in NMB and I would be reluctant to go into a coalition with an organisation that I know contains people one should be careful of. I want to put the interest of the city first, and that means finding the most stable model.”
It would seem that Joburg and Ekurhuleni are not the only metros ripe for the taking. NMB is shaping up as a key battleground in the crucial upcoming election.
Marrian is a political analyst at the Bureau for Economic Research
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.