In this year’s state of the nation address (Sona), President Cyril Ramaphosa spoke the language of reform, inclusion and infrastructure. Yet woven through the speech was a quieter but more strategic thread, highlighting South Africa’s mineral wealth and the push for critical minerals, beneficiation, localisation and expanded logistics corridors.
The speech hinted at unlocking South Africa’s mineral wealth by speeding up permit processes and expanding rail and harbour infrastructure, and positioning the country as a linchpin in the global energy transition.
In the clean energy race, South Africa could emerge as a powerhouse, supplying the lithium, cobalt and rare earths that will fuel electric vehicles, batteries, wind turbines and solar farms. And, if beneficiation succeeds, raw ore would be turned into industrial gold before it leaves our shores.
We are entering an era of resource imperialism, a 21st-century echo of the 19th-century scramble for minerals. Then, empires crossed oceans to control ore deposits and mining regions. The scramble now moves through investment and strategic partnerships rather than fleets and empires. Great powers are jockeying to control the veins of energy and technology that will shape global influence.
The US’s Inflation Reduction Act and the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act have turned minerals into geopolitical currency by hardwiring these inputs into industrial and climate policy in an effort to build resilience and diversify away from dominant producers.
South Africa’s mineral wealth offers leverage in the global resource stampede, but only if rail, electricity and policy function reliably. Without them, the riches stay trapped underground.
The global grab
Resource imperialism today plays out through long-term offtake deals, state-backed finance and strategic investments tied to diplomatic alignment. Washington is scrambling for suppliers beyond Beijing’s orbit, Beijing is locking in upstream control and allies are diversifying to reduce political risk in critical mineral supply chains. Venezuela’s vast mineral wealth, including gold, coltan and other rare elements, has become a focal point of investment and influence, underscoring how the modern contest for critical resources unfolds through capital and partnerships rather than military conquest.
South Africa faces a choice between remaining a price-taking exporter of raw ore or asserting itself as a “middle power”, leveraging its mineral wealth to exert influence without commanding global dominance.
What was left unsaid
Five clear omissions stand out from the Sona. First, there was no clear articulation of a coherent critical minerals strategy. If South Africa wants to be indispensable to the energy transition, it needs a single, transparent framework governing exploration rights, environmental approvals, royalties and export controls.
To turn our mineral leverage into national prosperity, we need more than diplomatic talk. We need the lights to stay on and the trains to run
Second, the logistics crisis was acknowledged but not costed. Transnet reform is progressing, but global capital will not finance processing plants if rail bottlenecks persist.
Third, electricity. Mining and processing require stable baseload. While private generation reforms are gaining traction, Ramaphosa did not quantify realistic timelines for transmission expansion.
Fourth, geopolitical alignment. South Africa maintains strategic nonalignment, but the speech did not address how critical mineral supply chains increasingly involve complex partnerships.
Fifth, fiscal clarity. Resource booms create temptation with windfall taxes and state participation. Investors need predictability. The government must resist populist impulses that undermine long-term capital formation.
The fiscal test
The government faces a narrow strait, navigating between debt stabilisation and social spending pressures while trying to harness the mineral moment.
Opportunities include safeguarding infrastructure spending for freight corridors; accelerating investment in electricity transmission to provide energy for mining regions; and providing targeted incentives. Clear, consistent policy on royalties, windfall taxes and sovereign mineral assets could further strengthen investor confidence.
None of this requires abandoning fiscal discipline, but without decisive action, South Africa risks letting its mineral wealth fail to drive industrialisation and inclusive growth.
South Africa has been here before. Gold built the 20th-century economy, underpinning government revenue, Joburg’s rise as a financial hub, and capital flows into railways, ports and power stations. Coal fuelled industry and urban growth, yet wealth remained concentrated rather than widely industrialised.
The difference this time is the global context. The energy transition has made formerly ignored minerals currencies of geopolitical influence. Countries controlling processing, not just extraction, will shape pricing, supply chains and global bargaining power.
In the new era of resource imperialism, the world isn’t just hunting for gold. Countries are clamouring to secure the foundational materials of the next century. We have the geology and the potential influence, but a seat at the table means little if we cannot deliver the goods. To turn our mineral leverage into national prosperity, we need more than diplomatic talk. We need the lights to stay on and the trains to run. The 19th century was about extraction. The 21st must be about execution.
Packirisamy is group economist at Momentum Group
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