In the late 1980s and early 1990s, when major uncertainty about the future gripped South Africa, journalists and commentators who predicted a peaceful transition to democracy were derided for practising what was termed “sunshine journalism”.
These commentators — and businesspeople and politicians on the government side who dared share a positive vision of the future — were branded naive and unable to read the country as it truly was. They were accused of leading the singing of upbeat choral music as the populace was dragged towards disaster by misguided political reforms.
The optimists were right, of course. On the short-term picture at any point, the pessimists tended to declare victory — “the rand will tank!” turned out to be true some of the time — and the optimists usually seemed to have got it wrong. Yet it was the optimists of the era who persevered and gave us the giddying, peaceful transition of 1994, plus the fast-growing economy and accelerated human development of the 2000s.
There is an air of optimism in business circles in South Africa right now. Many say the country is at a turning point. Are we going to be paralysed by fear — “it’s not a definite turn!” — or are we going to strike while the iron is hot? Will we, as we often do in South Africa, tie ourselves up in useless debates and let the opportunity to accelerate much-needed reforms pass us by?
The optimism has been growing since the fourth quarter of 2025, when South Africa was officially removed from the Financial Action Task Force greylist after completing all 22 action items to strengthen its anti-money laundering and counterterrorist financing frameworks. Around the same time, finance minister Enoch Godongwana delivered a medium-term budget policy statement that came from an inclusive process reflective of a more cohesive GNU, and seemed to bode well for sustainability and investor confidence.
As expected, President Cyril Ramaphosa made a big thing of some of these positive signals in his state of the nation speech on February 12.
“We are stronger today than we were a year ago,” he declared, pointing to a growing economy (the National Treasury expects real GDP growth to reach 1.5% in 2026 and rise to 2% by 2028), two consecutive primary budget surpluses, an improved credit rating, inflation at its lowest in 20 years, national debt that may be stabilising, rand strength, and a stock exchange that has performed extremely well.
Motsepe, who has collaborated with a variety of local business figures, has shown incredible pragmatism in his dealings
Now, you could poke holes in the optimistic narrative of Ramaphosa and those who have joined him in saying we are turning a corner. You might even be right about that. I mean, rand strength could be one of the effects of the US administration’s demented tariff regime instead of the South African government’s actions. Elements such as debt stability are just too early to call; the Treasury’s debt and GDP projections have fallen short of target for 15 years.
What should one do? I think we are rushing to make too many definitive statements too early in the game. It is always good to catch a wave at its beginning, but the medium-term outlook is still full of upheaval and uncertainty. This is due, primarily, to US animus towards South Africa plus the stability of the GNU as we approach the 2029 national elections. As the late, great futurist Clem Sunter would have said, too many red flags are still up while the positive indicators enumerated by Ramaphosa are still in their infancy.
The longer term, however, bears some strong positives.
At leadership level, the increased probability of an ANC presidential bid by billionaire businessman Patrice Motsepe is a relief. The prospect of Deputy President Paul Mashatile, who is constantly mired in scandal, rising to power is unnerving. Motsepe, who has collaborated with a variety of local business figures, has shown incredible pragmatism in his dealings. If he leads an electorally weak ANC, such pragmatism will be needed for stable coalition-building, pointing to a centrist post-2029 government that would continue reform efforts.
Ramaphosa’s presidency got rid of the Jacob Zuma kleptocracy and state capture. It started on reforms. A new leadership in the ANC that can work creatively with coalition partners can deliver the decisive reforms and implementation programme needed to make South Africa’s economy grow at 4% annually, or even higher.
