The local beer market, which stacks AB InBev against the recently formed Heineken Beverages, looks a little frothier — and still reassuringly competitive. But I’m not sure consumer hopes of a full-blown beer war are going to materialise. There is certainly a fight, which seems to be pitched mainly around value and variety, so tipplers will score.
While the big brewers trade gentle blows, there is, of course, the proliferation of craft beer brands. From personal experience, I seem to be in the minority in choosing to swig the occasional traditional South African brand beer. After exertions on the padel and tennis courts, most seem to hanker after large tankards of craft ale. This, I can tell you, is an expensive habit when the loser on the court — so often me — has to fork out for a round.
In any event, Heineken and AB InBev reported results recently, and these offered some quite nuanced perspectives on the local market. I’m not so sure shareholders in Remgro — which retained a significant minority stake in Heineken after the sale of its interest in Distell — will be clinking glasses yet. Heineken got off to a very slow start, which required Remgro to take a rather sharp writedown in the value of its investment. Thankfully, the financial report for 2025 showed an improving trend for Heineken in Southern Africa, which delivered “mid-single-digit” revenue growth.
Heineken noted, however, that total consolidated volume declined a low-single-digit percentage (remember that Heineken has other brands in the wine, cider and ready-to-drink category). But beer volume grew a mid-single digit with solid performances from Amstel, Windhoek, Sol and Heineken. In South Africa, Amstel and Bernini delivered double-digit growth. But bestselling cider Savanna declined slightly, though Heineken is hoping the launch of a can will boost sales. Its wines and spirits portfolio contracted too — mainly due to declines in less profitable large-pack formats and lower-priced brands. Things looked better in Namibia, where volume grew a mid-single digit, allowing Heineken to snatch market share in all its categories, led by Windhoek lager and Savanna.
AB InBev looks lustier and livelier. In its full-year and fourth-quarter results release, the group said South African operations continued their momentum, and market share gains translated into mid-single-digit growth in its top and bottom lines. Full-year revenue increased by a mid-single digit in South Africa and volumes grew a low single digit. Perhaps worryingly for Heineken, AB InBev said this performance was “estimated to have outperformed the industry in both beer and beyond beer”. Ebitda grew a mid-single digit, which suggests prudent marketing in a competitive market. AB InBev said its estimates showed that both the beer and beyond beer categories continued to grow in 2025.
In its global business, AB InBev reported its no-alcohol beer portfolio managed a 34% revenue increase
The group’s premium and super-premium beer brands registered sprightly volume growth in the mid-teens, while the beyond beer category was fairly frothy too, with volumes increasing a high single digit. Flying Fish and spirit-based ready-to-drink innovations were the star performers. In its global business, AB InBev reported its no-alcohol beer portfolio managed a 34% revenue increase. The group sees “significant headroom for growth”. AB InBev reported the overall “balanced choices” portfolio — the low-carb, sugar-free, gluten-free and no-alcohol beer brands — showed a revenue increase of 8.9%. Jeepers, when did swilling a beer become so much fun?
Heineken is also on the sober streak. It said its low- and no-alcohol portfolio grew volume by a low single digit, with double-digit growth in 18 markets. Personally, I cannot see the point of drinking a no-alcohol beer (or a lemon-flavoured beer), but that’s clearly a generational thing (or so my kids tell me).
I reckon shareholders in Trustco might need a proper stiff drink after developments — or rather nondevelopments — at the abortive general meeting this week. The meeting was called at the behest of the Riskowitz Value Fund, a significant shareholder, with the aim of removing and replacing the board of directors. The meeting, however, failed to take place … a not entirely surprising development.
Trustco chair Raymond Heathcote ruled that the meeting did not comply with the requirements for the “manner and time in which notices must be given to shareholders”. This meant no voting could take place at the meeting and the Trustco board remains unchanged.
What is also unchanged is Trustco’s prolonged suspension on the JSE or its inability to publish two years’ worth of audited financial statements in the required time frame. The longer Trustco keeps its shareholders in the dark, the shorter their patience will grow. Expect more shareholder pressure in the short term.
Speaking of pressure, security barrier specialist Trellidor has buckled badly after its downbeat trading statement. The share tanked close to 30% over a week, and Trellidor now carries a market value of less than R130m. At that price it is surely enticing to small-cap bottom-pickers and corporate predators alike? Perhaps the risks are too high?
While the UK business rolled out a large project, it is still worrying that the company reports suppressed demand in the core local market. This contrasts with Argent’s more upbeat interim report on its Xpanda business. Xpanda is benefiting from growing local and international demand — and it’s extending its manufacturing facility.
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