JUSTICE MALALA: Steenhuisen’s exit poses a new threat to the GNU

The sudden departure of John Steenhuisen from the leadership of the DA presents real danger and, perhaps, an opportunity beyond the narrow confines of his own party. For investors, it could mean instability and uncertainty for the GNU. That would be tragic; despite its many problems, the GNU is beginning to gel.

There are three issues. First, Steenhuisen, a man who deserves credit for steering the DA into the GNU and for being a dove when many of his colleagues wanted to break the coalition, is a loss to the temperate wing of the DA and the coalition. His departure puts the GNU at risk. Second, a new DA leader who doesn’t immediately ascend to the cabinet, as frontrunner Geordin Hill-Lewis has claimed he won’t, will hobble the DA and the coalition. Third, and as an aside, Steenhuisen is not a shoo-in for the agriculture ministry job — others want that role.

Let me elaborate. Steenhuisen has expressed a desire to stay in the cabinet and “finish” fighting the foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak. That is not his decision to make. It is not automatic that he will be chosen. The DA leadership chooses candidates for the cabinet positions it occupies and presents them to President Cyril Ramaphosa. They are then nominally vetted but almost always guaranteed appointment, unless there is a real security issue hanging over them.

In 2025 Ramaphosa lashed out at Steenhuisen after the DA leader’s “red line” threats for the president’s removal of Andrew Whitfield as deputy minister of trade, industry & competition for taking an unauthorised trip to the US. “Let it be clear that the president shall not yield to threats and ultimatums,” Ramaphosa said.

So, I am not convinced that Ramaphosa is so keen to keep Steenhuisen. It is presumptuous of Steenhuisen to think he will have a job in agriculture after he hired a highly controversial individual as a chief of staff, seemed distracted or out of his depth in the job, and is now largely blamed for the messy handling of the FMD crisis. Ramaphosa would accede to the new DA leadership wanting to field a new player (or team) in April.

Prepare for a new agriculture minister.

I am not convinced that Ramaphosa is so keen to keep Steenhuisen

Hill-Lewis is the frontrunner to lead the DA. He says he wishes to continue as Cape Town mayor. That is nonsensical. His DA colleagues in Ramaphosa’s cabinet would essentially be flying solo without a party leader. Such a configuration does not look workable and would lead to a problem the ANC has dealt with several times in all three spheres of government: a leader of the party who is not in government leadership.

The ANC kicked out Thabo Mbeki (2008) and Jacob Zuma (2018) when they lost the party leadership. Hill-Lewis should not be naive. He will be in the cabinet sooner rather than later if the DA stays in the GNU. If the DA does not get him into parliament quickly, it will find itself buffeted by contradictions and instability.

Here is the biggest headache. Various sources have leaked to news platforms that Steenhuisen was pushed out by a powerful conservative (the Mail & Guardian and Sunday World newspapers referred to it as right-wing) lobby group built around AfriForum, Solidariteit and Sakeliga. This is “AfriMAGA”, a term Steenhuisen has reportedly used. This faction in the DA wants the GNU to collapse.

As political strategist and DA insider Ryan Coetzee pointed out on X: “The AfriMAGA right don’t have a real alternative to the DA being in the GNU. They just have their rage and social media platforms on which to express it.”

There is no denying that the positive mood in the country is largely because the GNU seems to be gelling and has slowly brought about some positive reforms that augur well for economic growth. The AfriMAGA faction in the DA, just like the Zuma faction in and outside the ANC, imperils this positive forward movement in the country’s growth path.

To my mind, the work of Ramaphosa in his state of the nation address and in civil society is to urgently underline the fact that the GNU is holding, while helping it grow stronger and more effective.

It would be a tragedy if Steenhuisen’s departure led to the takeover of the DA by an AfriMAGA that then destroys the green shoots we are beginning to see.