So much for a barbarous relic. Gold’s shuddering shifts of late are as modern as any “civilised” memecoin machinations. But latecomers to the gold price party — and I know a few — have my sympathy. I suspect that in the short term gold will go up again, and probably down again too — though not necessarily in that order. I’m more than content to watch for now.
The last time I had such fun from the safety of the sidelines was “ladies’ night” at the Graham Hotel in the then Grahamstown in 1985. Ironically, it was the antics of a lad from the gold-mining town of Klerksdorp — nicknamed Oom Bok for his “sage” ways and mesmerising yarns featuring a rapscallion called Los Apie — that burnt that particular evening into my memory and my skin (long and painful story).
For those wincing at gold’s recent plummet, it’s not like you weren’t warned. Those who read our Hot Stocks cover story on January 15 might have picked up an important aside from Des Mayers, the veteran market analyst who scored a 144% gain in 2025 from smart gold (and poultry) picks. Mayers warned that any pullbacks in the gold market and gold shares “might be worrying”. What I unfortunately could not squeeze into the print version of the cover story was Mayer’s history lesson, which illustrated the often violent pullbacks in gold bull markets: “There was a great bull market in gold in the 1970s. But gold slumped to $40 when [then US president Richard] Nixon closed the gold window. By 1974 the gold price was at $195, but in the next 20 months it drifted back down to $104. Gold shares in that pullback fell something like 70% … By January 20 1980, gold had soared to $850, and gold shares went through the roof.” Long-term perspective is key.
For the growing multitude of silver acolytes, well … you are on your own. The recent spurt and violent pullback look like a classic case of retail investors being hyped into irrational exuberance. I did note, with some joy, that one of the more interesting asset management boutiques, Rozendal Partners, harnessed the silver lining to good effect. Its Global Fund has, for several years, held an investment in silver by way of the iShares Silver Trust ETF. Rozendal noted: “For much of this time, it served its purpose as a currency alternative and inflation hedge just fine.” Strong industrial demand coupled with constrained mine supply and the ever-increasing price of gold supported the silver price.
“But in the second half of 2025, the type of speculative mania which grips the silver market every decade or two suddenly erupted. By year-end, the inflation-adjusted price reached levels in the vicinity of that seen during the infamous cornering of the silver market by the Hunt brothers in 1980.”
Rozendal started cutting its silver exposure towards the end of 2025, meaning it did not fully capitalise on the surge through $100 — but neither was it hurt by the subsequent plunge. Rozendal said that despite the modest position size, the spectacular price performance still made silver a notable contributor to fund returns for the year.
In the second half of 2025, the type of speculative mania which grips the silver market every decade or two suddenly erupted
— Rozendal Partners
Turning from silver to slivers, packaging and printing giant Caxton & CTP finally mobilised a smallish portion of its more than R3bn cash pile for a long-awaited special payout. The underlying message is that Caxton is still generating reassuring operational cash flows — which the market hardly bothered to applaud. The dividend might, for some expectant shareholders, be a bit on the stingy side. The 100c a share gross payment amounts to R353m, which, I might point out, could have snagged Caxton an influential stake in either Transpaco or Bowler Metcalf, both lean and mean cash-generative packaging machines.
The decision not to splurge on a more generous dividend suggests that Caxton might still want to take a tilt at full ownership of packaging group Mpact, of which it already owns just shy of 35%. With its shares close to the R19.90 three-year low, Mpact carries a market value of just over R3bn. So, Caxton probably still has the balance sheet capacity to pitch a premium-priced offer to Mpact shareholders.
Meanwhile, I wonder what the Caxton brains trust thinks of Mpact contemplating the closure of its Springs mill, the only local producer of cartonboard. The mill has been rendered unviable by imports and a “significant overcapacity” in the global cartonboard market. The bottom line, Mpact admits, is that the mill’s big customers can import cartonboard at prices about 20% below the local cost of production — a situation that will probably persist with the stronger rand.
In the year to end-December 2024, the mill churned out revenue of more than R1.7bn and notched up an operating profit of R32m. Presumably things turned soggy in 2025 — something that will probably be confirmed when the numbers are released early next month. The value that might be salvaged from the mill certainly does not make for happy contemplation.
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