JUSTICE MALALA: The numbers favour Zuma in KZN local polls

We need to talk about KwaZulu-Natal.

Since July 2021, when hundreds of people died and more than a thousand were injured in devastating riots, we have largely proceeded as if those fires have been permanently extinguished. Have they? How can they be when former president Jacob Zuma, the man in whose name they were ignited, remains a significant — if not dominant — figure in that province’s politics?

The local elections, likely to be held around October, will shine an even brighter light on this phenomenon. The elections may lead to Zuma, who exercises iron control over his party and its numerous leaders who get changed more frequently than underwear, controlling large metros and having substantial budgets under his party’s aegis. What does such an outcome mean? What risks and, of course, opportunities does this scenario open?

Over the past 18 months, virtually every political analyst and commentator has stated the obvious: the ANC was walloped in the 2024 national and provincial elections and faces a drubbing in the looming local elections. Even the ANC itself, when its leaders are forced to confront reality, has spoken of the possibility of such an outcome. No sane ANC leader speaks any more of an “overwhelming victory” (a favoured ANC expression until 2024).

The numbers backing up these assertions are clear. Between 1999 and 2014 the ANC received about 11-million votes per election. In 1999 it was 10.6-million votes (66.35% of the total vote). In 2004 it edged up to 10.8-million (69.69% of the total vote), then 11.6-million in 2009 (65.90% of the total vote). That bump in 2009 was interesting. The newbie party COPE took more than 1-million votes off the ANC, but the ANC made up for this because the arrival of Zuma as head of the party attracted a huge rump of KZN voters who abandoned the IFP.

That ANC support remained steady in 2014 at 11.4-million because Zuma remained an attractive candidate in KZN. Nationally, however, the ANC was still on the back foot: it received 62.15% of the total vote, continuing its steady decline in provinces nationally except in KZN. Whatever the law enforcement authorities, the opposition and the media said, Zuma remained a powerful drawcard in KZN.

Though the ANC is in decline generally, it really is MK that has robbed it of its dominance of South African politics

Fast forward to 2024, when the ANC had kicked Zuma out and tried to “renew” itself under President Cyril Ramaphosa. Zuma used a new entity, the MK Party, to challenge the ANC nationally and in KZN. The results are interesting because they show Zuma’s attractiveness in KZN and unmask the fact that though the ANC is in decline generally, it really is MK that has robbed it of its dominance of South African politics. The ANC lost 3.57-million votes in 2024 compared with the 2019 elections. It received 6.45-million votes, which made up the 40.18% of the vote it obtained, compared with the 10-million or 57.5% it managed to get in 2019.

Now look at KZN. In 2019 the ANC scored 1.9-million (54%) of the vote in that province. In 2024 MK received 1.5-million (or 45% of the total vote) while the ANC took 600,000 votes or 17%. The two parties’ take is almost exactly the 2.19-million votes the ANC garnered in 2009.

We have nine or so months to go to the elections. Much may change in that time. However, Zuma is the dominant player in KZN. In by-elections over the past 18 months, his MK has made inroads in ANC strongholds. It took eThekwini ward 10 and KwaDukuza’s ward 28, both significant ANC locales. In ward 28 it won 62% of the vote.

If Zuma does significantly well in the local elections, he may change the calculus that led to the formation of the extremely fragile provincial coalition. In many local governments he will be either in charge or a key part of any new local government structure.

We now know what the ANC in local government brought us since 1994: corruption, decay, collapse, killings of councillors, consistently bad audit outcomes. We know that the ANC under Zuma between 2007 and 2017 accelerated this corruption and decay.

What does MK have to offer KZN? You only have to look at how many senior leaders it has recruited, heralded and then fired, sometimes within weeks, to know that disaster lies ahead.