“The tough thing about politics is the insecurity. No position is ever secure. You can be in one day and out the next — not because you did a bad job, but because the terrain shifted.” Helen Zille should know. The comment comes from her 2016 autobiography, Not Without a Fight. A former DA leader, she is now chair of the party’s federal council.
In the case of John Steenhuisen, who will not stand for re-election as DA leader in April, it is not so much a question of the terrain shifting as it is of staying the same for too long.
Over the past 20 years the DA’s percentage of the national vote in eight national and municipal elections has ranged narrowly between 16% and 24%, with the exception of the 2016 local government elections, when it hit 27% and then sank back.
The party desperately needs to grow its support, especially with the municipal elections looming. Critical mass, for the DA to be seen as a natural party of government, rather than an uneasy hybrid between opposition agitator and coalition partner, would probably be a minimum of 30% of the vote.
There is a feeling in the DA that Steenhuisen played a key role in stabilising support and getting the GNU across the line. But there is growing discomfort over his ability and capacity to drive growth in voter support.
Over the past 20 years the DA’s percentage of the national vote in eight national and municipal elections has ranged narrowly between 16% and 24%
Structurally, he is a busy man: agriculture minister as well as his party’s leader in parliament.
Personally, there have been questions about his judgment.
First there was his appointment of controversial podcaster Roman Cabanac as his chief of staff, and the even clumsier handling of the battle to remove Cabanac.
Then there was the messy response to President Cyril Ramaphosa’s firing of the DA’s Andrew Whitfield as deputy trade & industry minister — especially given that Whitfield was given the go-ahead to visit the US (which ostensibly led to his axing) by Steenhuisen himself.
The final straw seems to have been his internal battle with former party finance boss Dion George, where revelations about Steenhuisen’s personal finances (though not alleging corruption) were embarrassing.
The favourite to replace Steenhuisen as party leader is Geordin Hill-Lewis, whose rise in both the party and government has been stellar. In 2011 he became, at 24, one of the youngest members of parliament in South Africa’s history. He has served with distinction since 2021 as mayor of Cape Town. Last week he told the FM that, though he is ambitious, he will stand for the DA leadership only if Steenhuisen exits the race — so the way is now clear.
It might just suit the DA to keep Steenhuisen as a minister and parliamentary leader, with Hill-Lewis serving another term as mayor (assuming the DA retains its overall majority in the city). This would mean the DA leader would no longer be bound by cabinet constraints, or answer to an ANC president while trying to lead campaigns to defeat the ANC at the polls.
With Zille let loose on Joburg in the municipal elections, with a real chance of becoming mayor, this configuration of senior DA leaders may seem eccentric — but it could do the trick.
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