A rollercoaster political year lies ahead.
It has already started to get heads spinning, nerves jangling and stomachs fluttering: South African defence force chiefs seem to have ignored an explicit order from President Cyril Ramaphosa to bar Iran from naval exercises; the DA is in leadership agony as an important elective conference is set to be held in two months; and the ANC can’t get to grips with its many crises.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has snatched a South American president, made a grab for Greenland and upended relations with virtually every country in the world.
And it’s only week three of 2026.
Before the year gets underway properly, though, it is worth reflecting on why some headlines should be ignored while others will need us to worry about them but keep perspective. What is essential in these volatile times will be to understand whether a matter really represents a shift and demands action or is just political posturing during an election year — the US holds midterm elections on November 3 and South Africans are expected to vote for their local representatives around the same time.
Understanding the difference helps us understand why there may be equanimity among many about South African politics, for example, or Trump’s incendiary social media posts. Much that is in the headlines or spewed out of politicians’ mouths is just noise. A lot that is meaningful is not sexy enough for influencers who seek audience engagement.
What matters, then?
One of the key threats to South Africa between 2009 and 2018 was the capture and destruction of vital independent and autonomous organs of state such as the South African Revenue Service (Sars); attempts to capture state institutions such as the National Treasury; and the brazen capture by the Jacob Zuma clique of institutions that support democracy, like the public protector.
What is important this year is whether the institutions are robust and can hold up under political and special interest pressure
Ramaphosa does not get as much credit for it as he should, but he has kept one of his important promises of 2017: to restore professionalism, respect, efficiency and dignity to many of the state institutions that came under threat. Certain institutions will have leadership changes in the next two years, and part of civil society’s job will be to ensure that there is continuity of excellence in them.
It is worth reminding ourselves why South Africa is still holding up in many respects, despite the corruption, incompetence and sloth displayed daily by some of our politicians. The country continues to work, and parts of it present hope of future excellence, because some organs of the state, various Chapter 9 institutions and certain parts of state administration are absolutely stellar.
At Sars, Ramaphosa managed to get rid of the state capture leaders and, with Edward Kieswetter, has restored the institution so that it is now an effective, impartial and efficient tax-collecting authority.
The embarrassing, hapless public protector appointed by the Zuma crowd has been impeached, and that office seems to be working efficiently and effectively without political interference. The Treasury is beginning to clock up some successes under finance minister Enoch Godongwana. Vital actions such as getting South Africa removed from the list of dodgy countries have been taken. The Reserve Bank under Lesetja Kganyago’s deft leadership is a source of pride.
On the other hand, the National Prosecuting Authority under Shamila Batohi failed to live up to its promise. It should certainly do better, but it is not, as an institution, accused of the large-scale corruption that prevailed in the 2010s. Andy Mothibi, its new head, was an outstanding chief of the Special Investigating Unit. It is a pity he has only two years in the job, but hopefully the tradition of picking excellent leaders will continue.
What is important this year, as I have said before in this column, is whether the institutions are robust and can hold up under political and special interest pressure. At the moment, and under the guidance of the GNU, it seems to be the case.
That may explain the strength of the rand and the equanimity of many as the year begins. Long may that hopeful positivity last as the election races begin and the political noise overwhelms us.
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