I might be distinctly in the minority, but it’s good to be back in the daily grind. At the best of times, I’m never really up for a festive season frolic, but the past holiday weeks were enough to have me grovelling in front of my GP for a Valium prescription.
At the outset my family were determined to nullify my usual “bah humbug” Christmas spirit. So, the traditional celebrating of Festivus — which begins with the airing of grievances and ends with feats of strength — was duly displaced by a new tradition, “Practicus”. Practicus revolves around practical gifting which, on paper, seems prudent since all the family members have grown up. The clarion call “Festivus for the rest of us” was replaced by “Practicus for the best in us”. I got a length of towing cable, a box of lighters and a container “for stowing food waste”, which are all open to quite ghastly interpretation.
Matters were also made considerably worse by our banking facility, which 25 years ago was linked to our residential property purchase, unceremoniously and without warning expiring in early December. It’s not the best time to find yourself with a frozen bank account, and the bank (which shall remain nameless) did not exactly fall over itself to make new arrangements with long-standing and, dare I say, valuable clients. Not being able to sort out a new banking arrangement after six weeks — I kid you not — seems woefully slack, if not downright worrying.
Let me also say this: hastily setting up a new temporary banking account (to ensure the December pay cheque deposit did not go awry) and new debit orders is not something to undertake during the holiday lull. Interestingly, it was Capitec and Investec that came rapidly to the rescue. Both were simple, efficient and client-centric. More power to their market share gains, I say.
Then there was the long-anticipated trip back to the ancestral lands in the Eastern Cape, predicated on a much-delayed scattering of my mother’s ashes on her old stomping grounds in Uitenhage (or Kariega these days). Just short of the first traffic lights in Somerset West, we realised the ashes had been left on the shelf in the study. We pressed on regardless, through the gnarliest traffic one could find on the N2, where some drivers were bestowed with a divine right to an unimpeded passage to their holiday destination. The first night at the Gamtoos Ferry Hotel I had a recurring drunken dream (thanks Olof Bergh) of sunglassed devils in luxury SUVs tailgating me at high speed, beating their steering wheels and gesticulating wildly.
It’s been many moons since I was in the Eastern Cape, the last occasion being a fractious Sovereign Foods AGM about 10 years ago. Obviously I passed the large Sovereign production facility in Kruis River on the way to Kariega, but I was rather surprised to see the group also has poultry farms on the way to the Gamtoos River Mouth. It would be fascinating to see the scale of Sovereign, remembering it was already commanding a decent niche when it delisted from the JSE with private equity backers in 2017. Most readers will know that Sovereign and its private equity partner Capitalworks now speak for a chunk of listed agribusiness Quantum Foods. Capitalworks is now just beyond the usual seven-year private equity investment span for Sovereign, which makes me wonder whether there might be plans for an exit that could start with a reverse takeover of Quantum. I’m not sure what Country Bird Holdings, the other big shareholder perched at Quantum, would make of such a move.
Speaking of moves, Urquhart Partners founder Richard Cheesman was kind enough to forward his possible special situation plays for 2026. Last year was a good year for those banking on special situation payoffs, with deals in MultiChoice, Barloworld, Adcock Ingram and African Rainbow Capital. Cheesman points out internal rates of return of above 20% were achievable for almost all these transactions.
The momentum has carried over into 2026, with the delistings of Curro, Metrofile and Astoria expected to be completed shortly. Looking ahead to the rest of the year, Cheesman notes recent cautionary announcements from Libstar, ISA Holdings, Kore Potash and RMB Holdings, as well as shareholder changes at Alphamin Resources and Dipula Properties. He suggests Caxton’s long-running interest in Mpact could also come to the fore during 2026.
Further out, potential buyouts of Alexander Forbes and AfroCentric cannot be ruled out, he says, with controlling shareholders potentially taking advantage of depressed valuations to mop up minorities. Cheesman adds that commentary from Sephaku Holdings, Trematon Capital Investments and Trellidor, each articulating clear frustration with the listed environment, similarly points to the prospect of further corporate activity. Cheesman believes 2026 could also mark the swansong for Ethos Capital, Zeder and enX Group, with these holding companies already winding down for several years and now effectively reduced to single remaining assets.
Value Capital Partners remains a key force in several JSE turnarounds
Investor activism should also feature prominently. Developments at MAS PLC warrant attention after Prime Kapital’s assumption of control, while Value Capital Partners (VCP) remains a key force in several JSE turnarounds. Cheesman says VCP’s actions at Altron have been particularly notable, with a potential Netstar separation remaining an intriguing option.
He says the restructuring space should remain buoyant. Anglo American is nearing the end of an extensive unbundling and simplification process. De Beers is expected to be sold during the year, while Anglo’s Australian steelmaking coal assets are again on the market after Peabody Energy reneged on the prior transaction. Lastly, Reinet’s disposal of its stake in Pension Insurance Corp is expected to close in the first quarter. With more or less 80% of assets then in cash, Cheesman says management faces a wide range of options, including paying a large dividend, buying out minorities or even making a sizeable acquisition.
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