JUSTICE MALALA: GNU shows signs of growing up

The good times are knocking at South Africa’s door.

Hold your horses. Before you accuse me of preaching another version of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s 2018 “new dawn”, I am not saying all will be hunky-dory.

There are signs, however, that there is a maturity and a seriousness among the parties in the GNU; they have dialled down the threats, tantrums and empty rhetoric, while accelerating reforms they agree on. The result could put smiles on all our faces: economic growth could accelerate, the jobs market could rise out of its slumber and investment might tick up.

One of the key steps towards achieving this is establishing and maintaining a predictable, stable political and policy framework that allows investors to plan into the medium and long term. After 18 months of mixed signals about the stability and longevity of the GNU (the DA issued numerous red lines and deadlines, while the ANC suggested that it could walk out of the pact and flirted with other political formations such as the EFF), ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula said last week that the ANC has no intention of expanding the GNU.

This is great news.

It is an assurance that the positive trajectory the country has been on for the past five months or so will continue and that the key player in the GNU is no longer overtly trying to play two sides off against each other. It sends a clear signal: the GNU may be hard, but we believe the coalition partners can make it work.

It also shows that the ANC believes it can eke out something positive for itself from the arrangement. For now, the ANC wants to stay in. That means the policy trajectory of the ANC-DA-led GNU looks stable and predictable in the medium term.

There is no need to tamper with something that does not need tampering. We are operating very well

—  Fikile Mbalula

You will remember that when it was rebuffed by its coalition partners and feared it might not be able to pass the budget in February, the ANC started murmuring about inviting parties such as the EFF and ActionSA into the coalition to neutralise any opposition from the DA. That scenario could have led to policy creep from the EFF and even Jacob Zuma’s malignant MK Party. With Mbalula’s decisive declaration last week, that adventure is in abeyance — for now.

“We have not had challenges [in the GNU]. We managed to pass the medium-term budget. How can you tell me this does not showcase the stability of the GNU?” Mbalula asked. “I have said, look at practicalities. There is no need to tamper with something that does not need tampering. We are operating very well.”

Ramaphosa was also explicit in his defence of the GNU at the ANC’s midterm policy conference last week. TimesLive reports that he said the priorities agreed on by the GNU aligned with the ANC’s own policies: driving inclusive growth, creating jobs, reducing poverty, tackling the high cost of living and building a capable, ethical developmental state.

“In its assessment of the first year of the GNU, the NEC [the ANC’s national executive committee] agreed that we have safeguarded the core progressive policy agenda of the national democratic revolution,” said Ramaphosa.

The ANC leaders’ move away from casting aspersions on the GNU comes on the back of recent good news on the economy.

Finance minister Enoch Godongwana delivered a smooth and credible medium-term budget policy statement endorsed by all GNU partners, S&P Global Ratings upgraded South Africa’s credit rating with a positive outlook — the first such upgrade in 20 years — and South Africa was removed from the Financial Action Task Force greylist of dodgy countries.

All this may explain why the North-West University Business School’s fourth-quarter policy uncertainty index eased to 64.9 from its record high of 81 in the third quarter, indicating a notable reduction in policy-related risks even though uncertainty remains above the neutral baseline of 50. If political actors back up Mbalula’s words with action in the next few months, that could add to this sense of confidence among businesspeople and put South Africa on a whole new trajectory.

Let’s not drop the ball in 2026.