Anyone who has experienced deep loss is uncomfortably familiar with the five stages of grief.
While there is no fixed order for the flow — the various stages come and go at will, with no consideration for timing or convenience — the ANC appears to have finally entered the acceptance stage after its devastating electoral performance in 2024.
This was clear in the tone and content of secretary-general Fikile Mbalula’s midterm report to the ANC’s national general council (NGC). Compiled by his office in a rigorous process led by office manager Fébé Potgieter, it was a strong report, free of the conspiratorial lunacy that has characterised some pronouncements from that office.
Who can forget the then secretary-general Gwede Mantashe’s “colour revolution”, a fiction he used eight years ago to explain the ANC’s declining electoral fortunes, when the true cause was the way Jacob Zuma had outsourced control to the Gupta mansion in Saxonwold?
Mbalula’s delivery this week was well received by delegates, who expressed confidence in him in song, despite becoming restless towards the end of his near two-hour speech.
For the first time, the ANC secretariat has conducted and released detailed research into the state of the party’s membership. It is investigating not only the numbers but, importantly, the quality.
The Madlanga commission spotlight on Brown Mogotsi, whose dalliances with criminal cartel bosses in the ANC’s name have compromised the criminal justice system, provides a glimpse of the character of some in the party. It’s a problem that has long been building, and it has significant implications for the party and the country for as long as the ANC holds onto the levers of power.
The report is clinical — and at times brutal.
Its references to the ANC’s integrity commission (IC) provide frightening insight into just how badly reform is required. “Many comrades engaging with the IC show limited understanding of integrity and ethics,” it says.
The IC recommends that the party bury its “innocent until proven guilty” mantra. “Using legal technicalities to avoid accountability has brought the ANC into disrepute and should be treated as misconduct,” it says.
The ANC has recognised the extent of the “money politics” rot that is eating away at it. “Money influences campaigns, fundraising and leadership contests. Despite long-standing resolutions, the problem is worsening. The IC recommends urgent development of ethical fundraising guidelines, including transparent processes and strict prohibitions on quid pro quo arrangements.”
The succession undertone was strong at the NGC. Alliances and allegiances are becoming clearer
The report digs down to the roots of corruption at municipal level. “Blurred lines between party and state finances create opportunities for corruption, and individual campaign fundraising invites undue influence. The IC recommends reviewing access to supply chain systems and strengthening the distinction between state and organisational resources.
“Disciplinary action must follow any violations. Succession processes must be designed to eliminate money politics in leadership contests.”
The report details how the lavish lifestyles of ANC leaders are undermining the party’s moral authority.
“While many leaders view their lifestyle choices as private, they remain public role models. Extravagant living contradicts ANC values … The IC recommends lifestyle audits from the president down to all office-bearers at national and provincial levels. The IC should process the results to avoid conflicts of interest.”
The party secretariat is in the process of arranging these lifestyle audits, the report states. Of course, as with all ANC good intentions, it remains to be seen if there will be actual implementation. Will some leaders be untouchable?
But Mbalula’s report does indicate an ANC slowly awakening from slumber.
The party may not be able to arrest the decline in electoral support before the local government elections, but should it follow through with key reforms that have already started, it can perhaps stem the haemorrhaging by 2029.
The elephant in the room, however, is the looming succession battle. If future leaders get tripped up by the party’s attempts to enforce ethical behaviour, the result could be reversion to denialism and defending the excesses of its leadership at all costs.
The succession undertone was strong at the NGC. Alliances and allegiances are becoming clearer: Deputy President Paul Mashatile and Mbalula himself remain in the running for the top spot. However, National Assembly speaker Thoko Didiza, with energy minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa as her running mate, has emerged as a contender from the reformist camp aligned to President Cyril Ramaphosa.
Mashatile seems still to be in with the strongest shot, with Eastern Cape premier Oscar Mabuyane, chair of one of the largest provinces by membership, on the slate alongside him.
Given Mashatile’s deep knowledge of ANC structures and his ability to negotiate power between them, his rivals might not stand a chance. It was these attributes that propelled him into what was then the top six in 2017 as treasurer-general, and into the Union Buildings in 2022.
But Mbalula is making strides in his role as secretary-general. At least the ANC is functional again — albeit off a decidedly weak base, given that his predecessor was Ace Magashule.
Should Mbalula opt to withdraw from the race for the presidency, he would be a strong candidate to continue his rebuilding efforts within the top seven. Insiders say that his relative youth — he is 54 — means he will have plenty of time later to challenge for the top spot, perhaps with the clear accomplishment of having stabilised the party under his belt.
Mbalula’s choice may be a simple one: stay in the race and lose to Mashatile, or step aside and give Didiza a better shot at beating Mashatile. Either way, he is a key player in determining the ANC’s future.
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