NATASHA MARRIAN: South Africa’s democratic glow is fading

Amid rising voter apathy, political office remains alluring to many. In the local government elections in 2021, more than 95,000 candidates contested about 9,400 seats.

For the next round, more than 500 political parties have already registered. This is the reality confronting the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) as it does the groundwork for the 2026/2027 municipal poll.

Yet South Africans are becoming increasingly disillusioned with democracy, according to a study commissioned by the IEC and presented last week in parliament. It’s a disturbing trend for a young democracy. But it is in line with international trends.

“There is an entrenched trend globally of a downward participation in elections. There are headwinds facing democracy as the preferred method of arranging public affairs,” deputy chief electoral officer Masego Sheburi told parliament’s home affairs and co-operative governance & traditional affairs committees.

In South Africa, 68% of citizens still believe that voting is their civic duty, but trust in local government is at a record low, down from 53% in 2003 to 25% in 2023. In addition to the risk of voter apathy and disengagement, there is a tacit acceptance of the idea of autocratic rule — a dangerous combination.

“Not only are people dissatisfied with democracy but they are open to accepting autocratic government, or even a dictatorship, if they think their personal circumstances will change under that rule,” Sheburi said.

In South Africa, this is not just theory. Coming from nowhere, Jacob Zuma’s MK party got 14% of the national vote and 45% in KwaZulu-Natal in 2024. MK has openly expressed autocratic views and rejected the country’s foundational democratic values as expressed through the constitution.

Despite its views on election processes (such as rejecting a secret ballot) and its conduct running contrary to the values of a democratic dispensation, MK emerged as the third-largest political party and has been making steady progress in ward by-elections.

It is still involved in a legal challenge against the IEC, contesting the outcome of the 2024 election — with a key court hearing postponed last week.

For the first time in more than 25 years, the share of citizens who support the idea of military rule is higher than those who oppose it

MK grabs headlines, partly because of the constant churn in its leadership. It has had four chief whips in parliament and eight in the KZN legislature. There are endless controversies surrounding its founding leader, Zuma, and his family.

His daughter Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla resigned as an MP last week after she was implicated as a central figure in sending 17 South African men to Russia. They apparently ended up in the front lines of that country’s war with Ukraine, under the guise of “bodyguard training”. Why MK would need its “bodyguards” to receive advanced combat military training in a foreign country is entirely baffling — or, maybe, not so much.

An Afrobarometer survey released in October shows an increase in support for military rule in South Africa. For the first time in more than 25 years, the share of citizens who support the idea of military rule is higher than those who oppose it. Almost half the respondents would approve of the army running the country, the survey found (though whether our army is capable of running anything is another question).

Afrobarometer also found high levels of dissatisfaction with democracy, particularly among the poor and unemployed. Unemployment is seen as the main problem in South Africa, followed by crime, security, water supply, infrastructure and corruption.

Taken together, these factors complicate the work of the IEC.

It is not sitting idly on the sidelines, however. James Aphane, its acting GM for electoral matters, tells the FM that it has begun preparing for a smooth election, though the date has not yet been announced. It is starting with workshops or sessions with aspirant candidates and parties to teach them about the electoral process, funding and disclosure responsibilities.

Aphane says this is crucial work and the commission has already observed huge interest in the gatherings across the nine provinces. It is especially important for parties and candidates contesting local elections for the first time, as they do not yet have representatives on party liaison committees. MK is one of those parties.

Questions about the credibility of an election often arise when there are misunderstandings, he says. This happened in the case of MK’s court challenge of the 2024 results. There has also been poor communication from the IEC itself. An example was when the results board went down during vote counting in last year’s poll.

“When the screens went down, one of the criticisms we received was that we did not respond expeditiously. We took time before we could indicate what the issue was and what was being done to resolve it. So, in terms of responsiveness, we need to improve. But then we also need to accept that we live in a digital space. Things like misinformation and disinformation [are factors],” he says.

The IEC is bringing in experts to help deal with these situations, including reputation management consultants. For the first time, it has also introduced stricter protocols for hiring presiding officers at voting stations. It now requires candidates to have logged at least eight years as a presiding officer, which will ensure that there are experienced leaders at every voting station across the country.

There is only so much the IEC can do to address the dangerous rise in voter apathy and disillusion with democracy. This can only be countered when the lived experience of citizens begins improving, and politicians deliver on their promises.