“Depend upon it, sir, when a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully.” Dr Samuel Johnson’s remark helps us understand what has happened to the ANC in recent months, as personified by its leader, President Cyril Ramaphosa.
The prospect of further decline in next year’s municipal poll is close enough to have galvanised the party. It has already lost the Western Cape and Cape Town. In KwaZulu-Natal, it is hanging on to power in a coalition and could lose eThekwini. And it is scouring the land for a credible heavyweight to take on the DA’s Helen Zille in the race to be executive mayor of Joburg, where voters of all parties are heartily sick of the ANC’s destruction of infrastructure and services.
From its previous role of being the natural party of government for three decades, the ANC now faces possibly being out of power in the three biggest metros and a further decline in its minority share of the national vote. It is now, apparently, springing into action.
Why did it take so long? The shock of the 2024 electoral setback — down to 40% of the national vote from 58% in 2019, and a barely believable 18% in KZN, from 62% — was so great as to have the effect of a bereavement.
To draw on the work of the psychiatrist Elisabeth Kübler-Ross, the ANC has arguably been going through the five stages of grief, dealing with its shattering loss of complete power.
Its first collective reaction to the 2024 poll was denial. It did not concede defeat but spoke only of a “significant decline”. It had still won the most votes and would recover through “renewal” after this “temporary setback”. Even after being forced into a coalition with the DA, it insisted that it alone was still running the country.
Then came the anger, often expressed in rejection of the DA’s demands for respect as a partner and to have the right to influence policy. The third stage, bargaining, came when the reality hit home that the DA was now running some government ministries.
The ANC slumped into the fourth stage, depression, after its arrogant failure to consult on the 2025 national budget led to a humiliating defeat in March. Such a setback was unprecedented in South African history.
Then came acceptance, the fifth stage. It was seen in the second and successful attempt at a budget in May. The reality of shared power came to be handled more creatively and responsively.
That led to the surprise triumph of the medium-term budget and the acceptance of a 3% inflation target. As if to ride the new wave of positivity, Ramaphosa presided over a successful G20 gathering against the odds. Along with the dramatic cleanup of parts of Joburg for the G20, it showed what can be done.
It is now 18 months since the May 2024 election. The consensus among bereavement researchers is that recovery usually takes between 12 and 18 months.
The new sense of energy and purpose may not be enough to restore or stabilise ANC support in the next elections. But when combined with the expected purging of police and clearing up of other governmental corruption, it may indicate that the country is at last at a turning point for the better.
If that perception takes hold, the effect on business and investor confidence — and the economy — could be dramatic. There is much to do, but growth off a low base always looks good.
The president may have a legacy to look back on after all.
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