JUSTICE MALALA: The crisis before Christmas

The ANC could be the Grinch that spoils Christmas this year.

That’s because the ANC goes to a pivotal, anything-can-happen midterm conference in December where resolutions could cause policy uncertainty.

In 30 years of writing about the ANC, I have not seen the party of Nelson Mandela so uncertain, so unsure of its footing, so tentative about which path in the forked road to take.

In the past the country would be unsure about the ANC’s policy choices. The business community, for example, would be on tenterhooks about the depth of the party’s animosity towards capital. In the run-up to key conferences, we would all scour the party leadership’s speeches for clues that might reveal policy direction.

The ANC itself, however, had certainty and confidence in its positions. It had its struggle against apartheid as its key credential. And, until 2019, it had consistent 60%-plus backing from voters. Most important of all, it had a deep bench of leaders from its exile, trade union and internal activist base who could step up if necessary.

Now, as it goes into its national general council (NGC), the midterm assessment gathering, which will be held on December 8 to 12, it has little or nothing to offer except increased levels of uncertainty. It’s like a boxer who has taken a big punch in round one and has lost confidence.

The NGCs are unpredictable affairs. Various party factions use them to position their future leaders while policy adventurists and ideologues throw sensational proposals — “nationalise the Reserve Bank now!” — into the mix to shake things up or position themselves as radicals.

Without careful political management, uncertainty created by such utterances can ratchet up. In the Jacob Zuma years between 2009 and 2018, finance minister Enoch Godongwana — as the ANC’s economic policy honcho at the time — had to step in many times to calm markets.

Who are the respected ANC players who will play such roles this year?

This year’s NGC is unpredictable because the ANC is in transitive turmoil. It has bled support and faces loss of power in local government elections in 2026 and in national polls in 2029. In KwaZulu-Natal, Zuma’s offshoot MK Party continues to make serious inroads and may even taste power soon as the provincial coalition government teeters on the brink of collapse.

Given these pressures, should the ANC emulate its hero, Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe, and play radical to the gallery as he did when his power ebbed in the 2000s? Or should it stick with the lethargically implemented renewal policies of President Cyril Ramaphosa?

The party is acutely aware that it is, daily, losing the country as revelations at the Madlanga commission and at parliament’s ad hoc committee into nefarious security cluster activities continue to show that some ANC leaders are deeply intertwined with criminals.

This latest crisis buffets the ANC as rumours continue to swirl that Ramaphosa is “in the departure lounge” or is no longer interested in the top job. The president has not sought to quell such speculation, allowing the rumour mill to go into overdrive.

The problem for him and his party is that in his absence the ANC no longer has a serious contender for president. Paul Mashatile is facing corruption allegations, has no clear vision for the country and is supported by shady cliques. ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula’s star shone for a while in the party, but one cannot seriously claim he has enthused the nation. Suspended police minister Senzo Mchunu was seen as a Ramaphosa successor once, but his bid is dead in the water after the allegations at the Madlanga commission.

Who, then, is the one to watch in the ANC when power is so dispersed?

This question is important for the NGC because many ANC voices have been raised against the GNU. When the VAT crisis developed in February and Godongwana was forced to postpone his budget, many in the ANC pushed for the party to harness itself to MK and the EFF for a new coalition formation that excluded the DA. That debate is still raging in the ANC and will take centre stage in December.

A radical posture against the GNU by the ANC could make for a bumpy Christmas period. It would be wise to sleep with one eye open from December 8 to 12.