South African new vehicle exports into the rest of Africa surged 36.4% in 2025, lending substance to the local motor industry’s dream that the continent will one day become its main customer. Last year’s 35,371 outshone the 26,200 of 2024.
Context, however, is a terrible thing. That 35,371 was less than 9% of total exports, equivalent to less than 11% of vehicles shipped to the EU and lower than the number shipped individually to Germany (77,890), the UK (70,798) and France (36,087).
The figures, published last week by motor industry association Naamsa in the 2026 edition of its Automotive Trade Manual, underline the difficulty the South African motor industry faces in reducing its reliance on European customers.
Last year, 70.5% of vehicles made here were exported. Of those, 80% went to the EU and UK. In the next decade, both plan to outlaw the sale of cars and bakkies powered by internal combustion engines (ICE), in favour of electric vehicles (EVs). Even plug-in hybrids, which offer a combination of the two technologies, are in line for eventual extinction.
South Africa doesn’t manufacture wholly electric vehicles. Though some companies make hybrids, the industry has been begging the government for years to incentivise full-scale EV manufacture. If it doesn’t, the companies say, vehicle and components production will shrink and hundreds of thousands of jobs will be lost across the economy.
The solution, some believe, is to ramp up African sales. South African components suppliers are also eyeing African growth — particularly if, as hoped, this country becomes base camp for a pan-African motor industry. In the short-to-medium term, the emphasis will be on ICE.
According to the Naamsa report, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Egypt and Algeria are among the countries designing automotive policies — some with South African help.
The industry has been begging the government for years to incentivise full-scale EV manufacture
South African components companies exported R22bn of goods to Africa last year, up from R21.5bn. The combined value of components and vehicles rose from R41.8bn to R49.5bn.
Some optimists believe that, with the rolling out of the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement, continent-wide vehicle manufacture could grow from last year’s 1.23-million to between 3.5-million and 5-million by 2035 — the year that the EU and UK plan to bring down the shutters on ICE.
Over the same period, African new vehicle sales are forecast to rise on a similar scale from last year’s 1.29-million. That, though, will require more countries to limit sales of used vehicles dumped from other continents. Used vehicles account for 85% of all African vehicle sales, says the trade manual.
Still, last year’s 1.29-million was 22% better than 2024’s 1.05-million. South Africa alone contributed more than half the total, with 597,338. Morocco was the second-biggest market, with 235,372.
The fight for production leadership is much tighter. Morocco, which manufactures primarily for European customers, became Africa’s leading car producer in 2019 and last year built 493,004, compared with South Africa’s 329,600. South Africa’s bakkie production, however, made it the overall leader — 618,077 against 501,965.
The trade manual says Morocco’s vehicle production has surged in recent years because of extensive government support for EVs, offering tax incentives to manufacturers and subsidies to domestic consumers — measures that the South African government has so far failed to implement.
The local industry hopes this will change in this year’s review of the government’s 2021-2035 automotive production & development programme, which is intended to double vehicle production and overall industry employment. Companies are also hoping for more protection against cut-price imports.
The argument for protection is highlighted in the Naamsa report. There was a huge increase in the number of cars and bakkies imported by South Africa last year. From 51,888 in 2024, the number of Chinese imports leapt to 91,326. Chinese brands increased their share of the car market from 11.2% to 16.8%. Imports from India rose from 173,884 to 219,796.
Overall, the number of imported cars and bakkies rose from 304,175 to 391,287, and their value from R74.8bn to R99bn. Imports accounted for 82.8% of the new car market.
Even so, the industry posted an overall R35.3bn trade surplus in 2025. Though down on the R42.8bn of 2024, it was the 11th consecutive annual surplus.
This was despite a 29% drop in the value of exports to the US in the face of President Donald Trump’s global trade war. South African exports to that market were worth R20.4bn, compared with R28.7bn in 2024. Having enjoyed a R6.6bn trade surplus in 2024, South Africa slipped into a R3.1bn deficit in 2025 after importing R23.5bn.
The local motor industry exported to 154 countries in 2025. The total value of exports was a record R291bn, against imports of R255.7bn. Vehicle export volumes also set a record of 414,271 — up from 391,128 in 2024. These contributed R229.8bn to the industry’s export value, against the R61.2bn contribution from components.
Thanks to an import bill of R156.7bn, the components sector suffered a trade deficit of R95.5bn. Vehicle exports more than compensated for this with a R130.8bn surplus.
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