The new vehicle market continues to exceed expectations. But for how much longer?
Figures released this week by motor industry association Naamsa show that sales of cars and commercial vehicles totalled 47,979 in April. That was 13% more than the 42,467 of April 2025 and, significantly, the highest April figure since 2013.
Brandon Cohen, chair of the National Automobile Dealers’ Association, describes the performance as “an amazing show of robustness” at a time of local economic pressure and international turmoil.
WesBank senior economist Thanda Sithole says the April result shows that the new vehicle market still has momentum after a prolonged period of growth. But he cautions: “The key question now is how durable that momentum will be as fuel, inflation and interest rate pressures filter through household budgets and business confidence.”
After four months of 2026, aggregate sales amount to 209,925 — 12.5% more than the 186,599 at the same stage last year. Car sales are 12.9% ahead, light commercial vehicles (mainly bakkies and minibus taxis) 12.3%, medium trucks 2.6%, heavies 24.5% and extra-heavies 4.9%.
Last month, car sales outdid the corresponding 2025 month by 14.3% — 34,414 against 30,113. Light commercials gained 9.7%, medium trucks 10.5%, heavies 10.6% and extra-heavies 10.2%.
Sithole says the fact that all segments posted increases in April “suggests that the [market] recovery has some depth, although affordability remains a key constraint for many consumers”.
The key question now is how durable that momentum will be as fuel, inflation and interest rate pressures filter through household budgets and business confidence
— Thanda Sithole
Cohen had expected a smaller market, given that, in addition to economic and political challenges, fuel prices rose significantly in April and there was a flurry of public and school holidays.
“Consensus was that these factors … would have put a dampener on the market,” he says. “Not so.”
Naamsa says the government’s decision to extend fuel levy relief to end-May will benefit car buyers, but adds that the big winners are commercial vehicle fleets — as shown by April’s encouraging truck sales.
It says: “Elevated and volatile diesel prices increase the hurdle rate for fleet investment and can delay replacement cycles. By easing diesel costs, the intervention supports operating margins in the transport sector and helps sustain demand for commercial vehicles.”
But it adds: “While the relief measures ease short-term pressures, they do not fully offset the broader impact of elevated global oil prices. The underlying cost environment remains challenging and its effects are expected to persist beyond the duration of the intervention.”
Naamsa is also cautious about vehicle exports. In April, they totalled 30,939 — 4% fewer than the 32,229 of a year earlier. The main cause was a 42.9% drop in bakkie shipments, due mainly to the phased market changeover to a new Toyota Hilux.
Volkswagens were the main export in April, with 10,512 vehicles, followed by BMW (6,100), Mercedes-Benz (5,500), Ford (4,183), Toyota (3,443), Isuzu (356) and Nissan (348).
Toyota remained the clear local market leader in April, selling 10,188 vehicles across its car, bakkie, minibus and truck ranges. Suzuki was second with 5,363, followed by Volkswagen (4,814), Hyundai (2,857), Ford (2,702), Great Wall Motors (2,485), Chery (2,462), Jetour (1,804), Omoda/Jaecoo (1,383) and BMW (1,366).
Jetour, Omoda and Jaecoo are all part of the Chery stable. Together, the four brands’ April sales amounted to 5,649. Chery, which has bought Nissan’s vehicle assembly plant in Rosslyn, Tshwane, has said it hopes to build its vehicles there from 2027. Jetour officials in China have been quoted as saying these will include theirs.
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