Don’t get too excited about the new vehicle sales boom, say analysts. While dealers and (some) motor companies have every reason to celebrate another month of excellent sales, the latest Middle East conflict, combined with rising domestic transport costs and potential import duties, could dampen vehicle affordability and consumer enthusiasm in the near future.
Figures released this week by motor industry association Naamsa show that 53,455 new cars and commercial vehicles were sold in South Africa during February. Not only was that 11.4% more than the 47,944 of February 2025, it was also the best February performance since 2013.
After two months of 2026, the aggregate market is 103,976 — 9.9% more than the 94,588 of a year ago.
February car sales improved by 11.3% compared to a year earlier, from 33,750 to 37,576. The market for light commercial vehicles (mainly bakkies and minibuses) grew by 11.9%, from 11,816 to 13,218. Medium commercial vehicle sales, at 720, were the same, while heavy trucks and buses gained 13.6%, from 1,708 to 1,941.
Brandon Cohen, chair of the National Automobile Dealers’ Association, describes the market as “most encouraging for a local industry which has been in the doldrums for most of the post-Covid period”. WesBank marketing head Lebogang Gaoaketse says it has “moved beyond recovery into a phase of consolidation”.
As usual, Toyota dominated February sales. Including the Lexus luxury car and Hino truck brands, the company sold 12,272 vehicles for a 23% share of the market. That was almost twice as many as second-placed Suzuki, which sold 6,562. Third was the Volkswagen group, including Audi, with 4,895. Rounding out the top 10 were Hyundai (3,136), Ford (2,928), Great Wall Motors (2,614), Isuzu (2,371), Chery (2,312), Mahindra (1,996) and Kia (1,746).
The market is ‘most encouraging for a local industry which has been in the doldrums for most of the post-Covid period’
— Brandon Cohen
More than half of these brands are fully imported. As is well documented, vehicles made in China and India have made huge inroads into the domestic market by undercutting the prices of established brands. As Gaoaketse notes, the government has said it is considering tariff protection against imports.
This obviously would reduce the affordability advantage of imports. In addition, local vehicle manufacturers have asked for automotive policy to be adjusted so that production incentives can be used to write off ad valorem duties on South Africa-made vehicles.
Gaoaketse says: “While nothing has been finalised, any changes could affect vehicle pricing and competition in the market, highlighting the need to balance localisation objectives with consumer affordability.”
What has been finalised is the decision to sharply increase fuel prices. From April 2, new fuel levies will add up to 21c on the price of a litre of petrol or diesel. Naamsa says: “Collectively, these measures will incrementally raise the cost of fuel at the pump, feeding into higher operating costs for households and businesses, thereby affecting calculations of total cost of vehicle ownership.”
Then there’s the Middle East war, which has already pushed up international crude oil prices and the global costs of transport and logistics — all of which are ultimately paid for by consumers. Naamsa says: “Elevated crude prices, if maintained, would feed into international refined fuel costs and, ultimately, domestic pump prices. For South Africa, this will potentially dampen discretionary consumption — including new vehicle purchases.”
Gaoaketse agrees. Throw in rand exchange volatility, and “this is likely to push up the overall cost of vehicle ownership in the coming months”. Despite these challenges, he remains “cautiously optimistic” that the local new vehicle market will continue to grow. Cohen says: “Growth seems sustainable.”
Whether the same can be said of South African vehicle exports is open to debate. Last month, the local industry shipped 24,221 vehicles to foreign customers. That was 28.1% lower than the 33,684 of February 2025. Besides the loss of the US market through tariff penalties, Naamsa says “heightened protectionism” elsewhere is also hurting demand. In addition, some exporters are playing catch-up to keep pace with tighter environmental standards, particularly around decarbonisation.
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