There is likely to be enough milk to meet consumer demand during winter in spite of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) among South African cattle herds, says Milk Producers’ Organisation (MPO) chief economist Bertus van den Heever. But it could cost more.
Van den Heever says a favourable price ratio for the stimulation of unprocessed (farm-gate) milk had been expected in 2025, but this did not materialise, partly because of FMD. “Stimulation” refers to boosting the volume of fresh milk produced on farms before any processing, such as pasteurisation.
Farm-gate prices do not conclusively reflect market conditions, he says. The “sideways movement” in farm-gate prices over the past two years and the spread of FMD are part of the reason for this. A more realistic increase in the price of farm-gate milk is imperative. The price ratio compares the price farmers get for their farm-gate with the cost of concentrated feed for cows. It shows how many kilograms of feed a farmer can buy from selling one litre of milk, helping dairy farmers decide if extra feeding boosts profits. Farm-gate is raw milk before processing and is a benchmark in the South African dairy industry.
A milk processor tells the FM that it takes a long time for the impact of FMD to “float through onto the shelf”. When supply is reduced, the secondary industry steps in and tries to stimulate supply by paying more for milk, which in turn reduces its margins, he says. “And when we get to a point where we can’t survive any more, collectively we go to the retail industry and say we’ve got to get a price increase through the market. And that comes through as a big price shock.”
On dairy farms throughout the country, calves are dying from a side effect of FMD known as “tiger heart”, which is transmitted through milk, and conception levels have been reduced. The long-term consequence of this is a reduction of breeding stock and a reduction in the availability of meat and milk.
In the worst-case scenario, “if FMD runs amok we will end up with a situation where we have milk prices similar to our neighbouring countries, Zimbabwe and Zambia”, says Jane Holliday, CEO of agricultural consultancy Interlact. “They’ll be importing milk far sooner than anything like that happens. What could happen is that dairy farmers go out of business and food security in the country is ruined.”
All our milk flows are right down
— Bradley Gace
Holliday says the farm-gate milk price in Zambia is about R10 a litre compared with about R7.20 a litre in South Africa. In Zimbabwe, milk is sold for US62c a litre. “So we are looking at a 40% increase in milk prices based on Zimbabwean and Zambian prices,” Holliday says.
A significant proportion of the 1.5-million Dollvet FMD vaccines procured from Türkiye will go to dairy farms in KwaZulu-Natal, where further outbreaks have been reported, but there is no final confirmation of the quantity.
Of South Africa’s 800 dairy farms, 61 have reported contamination by FMD.
Veterinarian Jacqui Marais told a conference in Ermelo that dairy farmers lose R4m-R6m in the first month of infection.
Though FMD does not affect food safety, farmers who have managed FMD symptoms have to wait for antibiotics to pass through the milk before they can legally sell it. If cows are treated for secondary infections, such as mastitis, the withdrawal period ranges from three to seven days. During this time thousands of litres of milk that cannot be used are being thrown away every day.
Hannes Schoeman, a dairy farmer in Wakkerstroom, Mpumalanga, tells the FM that he has lost 31 cows and 15 calves to FMD and about R2.1m in milk supply over three months. “About 60 cows cannot be milked because of mastitis. They will be slaughtered in three or four months.”
James Kean, a dairy farmer in Mooi River, KZN, says his seasonal expenses rose by R1m as he tried to contain infections, and milk production dropped from 26,000 litres a day to 23,000 litres a day.
About 150 of Bradley Gace’s cattle died or had to be shot because of FMD. Gace, who owns two farms in Winterton and Bergville, KZN, says 19 dairy farms in the area have been infected. “All our milk flows are right down,” he says.
There is always a shortage of milk as winter approaches, says Gace, who owns 1,860 milking cows. This year, it will be higher than normal. He expects a loss of between R4,000 and R6,000 per animal.
Andrew Morphew, who farms in Karkloof near Howick, has so far been spared FMD. He attributes this to the natural buffer provided by surrounding timber plantations and strict biosecurity by five dairy farmers in the area who spend R100,000 a month on security checkpoints. Morphew milks 650 to 700 cows and has about 1,200 animals, including heifers that are being reared as replacements for cows cycled out of the system. He employs 47 workers and produces about 12,000 litres of milk a day, which is sold locally.
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