Kalshi: All bets are on
Predicting the future has a long and noble history going back to high-profile specialists like the Delphic Oracle and the entrail inspectors of ancient Rome, but it has now been democratised by the stunning growth of prediction markets such as Kalshi.
Without even having to stir from the comfort and safety of a favourite recliner, the man in the street can now place a well-judged investment on pretty much anything with a binary outcome, from the winner of the Super Bowl to the date when the US flattens Iran.
At present the bulk of Kalshi’s revenues come from sports trading, and monthly active users of its app have ballooned from around 600,000 in January 2005 to 5.1-million in February this year. Valuations of traditional sportsbook operators have tanked in response, with both DraftKings and Flutter losing more than half of their market capitalisation in the past year.
Given that it is US-based, the lawyers have been dealing with legal challenges coming in from regulators, states and Native American tribal groups worried about the threat these upstarts pose to their existing gambling businesses.
The Biden administration showed some interest in regulating the nascent industry, while the Trump family appears to have taken a look at it and seen a large amount of dollar signs. The president’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr, is a paid adviser to Kalshi and an investor in its major rival, Polymarket. The Trump Media & Technology Group has announced that it will be launching a prediction market of its own, so it’s a safe bet that the growth will continue.
Mattel: Not quite Kenough
Despite the sterling efforts of Margot Robbie to broaden Barbie’s appeal beyond its traditional audience of young girls to include breathlessly salivating males of all ages, Mattel’s share price took a hammering after slow December sales forced it to announce results that were a long way short of Kenough.
Operating profit was down by 11% in Q4, as the market was disrupted by uncertainty over the tariff regime. Retailers delayed orders until late in the year to try to get some sort of clarity on tariffs that were up and down like a yoyo.
Sales of Barbie products were down 11% in the year, despite the buzz allegedly created by extending the range with an autism Barbie and even a diabetes version. Mattel’s performance looks particularly anaemic compared with that of its rival Hasbro, which has seen its share price rise by 75% in the year as opposed to Mattel’s 30% decline. Hasbro was foresighted enough to acquire Wizards of the Coast way back in 1999, an early move into games rather than toys that has evolved into a division that generated more than $2bn of revenue in 2025.
Mattel has made plenty of noise over the years about its plans to become a digital-first, intellectual property-driven company, and its investors will be thinking it’s about time for the delivery of something a bit more concrete than another portion of hot air. In the meantime, there are collaborations to look forward to with not just the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles but also K-Pop Demon Hunters, Disney Princesses and the extreme excitement of the 40th birthday refresh of American Girl.
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