Rassie Erasmus and his staff will monitor the Six Nations closely over the next two months as they prepare for a 2026 schedule that is probably the most demanding in rugby history.
European rugby’s Six Nations, which kicks off next week, is only one element in Erasmus & Co’s planning, which could be said to have started eight years ago when he was given the job of Bok coach. Since then, Erasmus has been slowly building player depth, cleverly managing front-line players, experimenting with combinations and grooming others for the future. That future has now arrived.
During July the Boks host England, Scotland and Wales in the first Nations Championship matches, before turning to the four-Test series here against the All Blacks in August/September, which has no bearing on the new competition but carries the rivalry of more than a century. A Test against Australia in September remains unconfirmed.
For the Nations Championship, the world’s top 12 teams will be split into a northern conference (England, France, Ireland, Italy, Scotland and Wales) and a southern one (South Africa, New Zealand, Argentina, Australia, Fiji and Japan). Teams play for log points in six cross-conference matches in July and November. No matches are played between teams in the same conference.
Erasmus’s planning and player depth, especially in 2024 and 2025 when he used 50 players in each season, could give the Springboks an edge.
The teams will need two or three outstanding combinations to secure consistent results over the 13 or 14 Tests. It will not be enough to have one explosive option, such as Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu; the young flyhalf is unlikely to play consecutive Tests in July or all four against New Zealand. Nevertheless, the Boks have good alternatives such as Manie Libbok and Handré Pollard.
The same applies to other leading players, among them 2025 World Rugby Player of the Year Malcolm Marx, who has racked up an extraordinary time for club and country over the past two seasons. He is part of a formidable front-row squadron — part of the Bok scrum’s destructive strength — where veterans like Marx or young players like Jan-Hendrik Wessels can be deployed.
Props Wilco Louw and Thomas du Toit impressed last season, and the Boks will only get stronger in the coming months once World Cup winners such as Ox Nché and Frans Malherbe return from injury. The back row is also well stocked, with Elrigh Louw and Cameron Hanekom set to bolster a group that includes Siya Kolisi, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Kwagga Smith and Jasper Wiese. Then there are Junior Bok stars Paul de Villiers, Batho Hlekani and Cheswill Jooste who may feature with a view to the 2027 World Cup.
Erasmus has prioritised the series against the All Blacks and preparations for the 2027 World Cup, but the Boks could add yet another trophy to their crowded cabinet in 2026
The denouement of the 2026 season arrives in November when the Springboks play Italy, France and Ireland on consecutive weekends for a finals weekend where the winners of the two conferences meet at Twickenham.
Based on what was witnessed in 2025, England and South Africa are early favourites to qualify for the final. England won 11 out of 12 Tests last year, while the Boks won 12 out of 14 and finished the year as World Rugby’s top-ranked team.
Erasmus has prioritised the series against the All Blacks and preparations for the 2027 World Cup, but the Boks could add yet another trophy to their crowded cabinet in 2026.
England are the in-form team in Europe, but questions remain whether they have what it takes to win the Six Nations this season, thus ending a six-year wait for the title. It’s also been nearly five years since England beat the Boks and eight since they won in South Africa. However, England have improved over the past 12 months, and English clubs have fared well in Europe and in the English Premiership.
Bath, coached by South African Johann van Graan, won the treble last season and are well placed to compete for the Champions Cup and Premiership this year. Overall, seven of the English clubs have qualified for the Champions Cup round of 16.
France have dominated European rugby in recent seasons, with their top clubs winning the past five Champions Cup titles and their national team winning two of the last four Six Nations. Bordeaux-Bègles and Toulouse are expected to go deep in the 2025/2026 Champions Cup, but there are doubts that Les Bleus, the national team, have what it takes to retain their Six Nations title. After winning the 2025 Six Nations, a weakened France team lost the series 3-0 in New Zealand, before a humbling 32-17 defeat by the Boks in Paris. They might be helped, however, by three of their five Six Nations Tests being played at home.
Ireland also have a challenging season. Heavy defeats by New Zealand and South Africa exposed their technical shortcomings and lack of depth.
The remaining Six Nations teams will have modest ambitions. Erasmus has declared Italy a team to watch in 2026 and in the World Cup in Australia. In the short term, Italy will target wins against a mercurial Scotland and an embattled Wales in the Six Nations.
Scottish club rugby is enjoying a good season, with Glasgow Warriors, coached by former Bok flyhalf Franco Smith, and Edinburgh qualifying for the Champions Cup playoffs. But whether Scotland can translate club form to Test level is debatable.
Wales are likely to finish last again, having lost nine out of 11 Tests in 2025, their only wins coming against Japan. One reason being offered is the weakness of the principality’s club rugby.
That could apply to European club rugby, if recent Champions Cup results are anything to go by. For the past few seasons, the tournament has been criticised for its convoluted format and its 24 teams. Most clubs have failed to cope with travelling vast distances almost every week. They have often used second-string combinations abroad to manage player welfare and lost heavily.
The Bulls lost 50-5 to the Northampton Saints, the Sharks went down 56-19 in Toulouse, and the Stormers were thrashed 61-10 by Harlequins in London. Clermont Auvergne, Sale Sharks, Scarlets, Bayonne and Pau have also leaked 50 or more points in away fixtures — and overall, the average winning margin for the recent pool phase was 20 points.
Even teams with big squads, like the Bulls and Sharks, have not delivered on their promise. Both teams have undergone significant structural changes in recent months — with Johan Ackermann replacing Bulls boss Jake White and then firing two of his assistants, and JP Pietersen stepping in for ousted Sharks coach John Plumtree.
Both coaches fared worse than expected in the Champions Cup and the precursor tournament, the United Rugby Championship (URC). The Bulls lost three of their Champions Cup pool fixtures and were fortunate to qualify for the round of 16; they will travel to Glasgow Warriors in early April.
The Sharks have been knocked out of the Champions Cup and may find some consolation in the second-tier Challenge Cup.
The Stormers have been South Africa’s best club team this season, and coach John Dobson has taken a page out of Erasmus’s book to manage his squad and harness the team’s set-piece, kicking and attacking strengths.
The big defeat by Harlequins cost the Stormers home advantage in the round of 16, but they may fancy their chances when they travel to Toulon for the do-or-die match in April. No team has played with more balance in the URC, and they remain on track to host a playoff in that competition, and possibly a final.
The Lions and Cheetahs fell short of the playoff qualification in the Challenge Cup, but the premature exit may be a blessing for the Lions. With no European matches to come — and thus less arduous travel — the Lions can focus on the URC and their quest to qualify for the quarterfinals for the first time.
By the end of the club season, it’s possible a South African coach — Bath’s Van Graan, Glasgow’s Smith or even Leinster’s Jacques Nienaber — will lift the Champions Cup.
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