Orion Minerals, a Northern Cape copper developer, is optimistic an investor roadshow to Australia this month will achieve what has so far eluded it — a broad base of institutional shareholders.
Shares in the company more than doubled last year, culminating in a five-year high on January 30. The trigger to the share price was an agreement with Glencore, the Swiss-headquartered miner and marketing firm. In return for buying metal from Orion’s Prieska Copper Zinc Mine (PCZM) in the Northern Cape, Glencore will pay Orion $250m, of which $40m is upfront.
The capital injection will fund the shallower part of PCZM’s orebody, known as the “Uppers Project”, and a portion of its extension, the “Deeps Project”. The two projects will carry a combined capital cost of just over R6bn, so Orion still has R2bn in finance to find. At full tilt, PCZM will operate at its scoped capacity of 22,000t of copper and 65,000t of zinc a year.
Orion CEO Tony Lennox says the only institutions on the firm’s share register are its founding partners Tembo Capital, a UK business that has a 17.9% stake, and Germany’s Delphi Group (12.6%). As Orion is hoping to use equity finance for part of the balance of PCZM, the coming weeks are a chance to gauge market sentiment.
If there’s interest in copper (there will be), including in South Africa, the company will seek to raise more equity than originally planned, says Lennox. “Equity is better than debt — you don’t have to pay it back,” he says in an interview with the FM.
Another surge in Orion’s share is possible once the transaction with Glencore is closed and project construction begins. “I think you’ll see another step-up in the price,” Lennox says. First output has been pushed out to the first quarter of next year from December 2026, partly owing to delays related to Glencore’s merger discussions with Rio Tinto.
Though the JSE had been “good to Orion”, Lennox thinks the deeper pool of capital that Australia has for junior and mid-tier mining is now worth tapping. “We need to reinvigorate the story. There are a few goals scored, and a clear path to production, which I think will resonate in that market.”
Orion has also been boosted by an exploration partnership with BHP, the world’s largest miner. The Australian group will invest $500,000 as part of its 2026 Xplor programme in which it partners with early-stage exploration and technology companies globally, particularly in search of critical minerals.
Orion was selected to partner BHP as one of 11 from an application pool of more than 780. It’s also BHP’s only exploration partner in the EMEA region. “My view is that the majors have three priorities: copper, copper and copper,” says Lennox. “They have searched the world vigorously and for a host of reasons the Northern Kalahari region has been underexplored — and I know that is the internal thinking within a couple of the majors.
“Clearly we are very pleased with the BHP Xplor partnership, and that is being factored into our thinking as we speak about a longer, more extensive portfolio into the future,” says Lennox.
My view is that the majors have three priorities: copper, copper and copper
— Tony Lennox, Orion CEO
BHP’s partnership with Orion, which is planned to extend beyond the tenement boundaries of Orion’s properties, marks the company’s first major investment in South Africa in years. The fact that it’s in the Northern Cape stands for something, especially as the region is having “a moment” in terms of its prospects.
In addition to BHP’s exploration plans, both Anglo American and South32 reiterated their commitment to the province. Anglo American CEO Duncan Wanblad told the FM in an interview after the group’s year-end results presentation last week that amid his firm’s merger with Teck Resources, the combined group’s South African assets — a 69.7% stake in Kumba Iron Ore and its Samancor Manganese Mines joint venture with South32 — offers option value, especially if state-owned rail and ports firm Transnet can continue to improve performance.
It’s worth remembering that when Anglo was viewed as a long-term owner of platinum and diamonds, the South African portfolio was viewed as so great a risk it became known as the “South African discount”, even when the assets comprised up to 70% of ebitda, as they did recently.
Asked for his views on the role South African mines will have in Anglo Teck, Wanblad commented: “I would say that opens up more optionality in the Northern Cape specifically, if Transnet can get back to the levels of rail availability that we have embedded in the current contract. Even though it’s slow [rail and port reform], even though it takes time to get back to where it was a few years ago, it does create and open up that optionality even more.”
There’s already evidence Anglo sees expansion opportunity in the Northern Cape. On February 19, Kumba Iron Ore said it had identified 293Mt of additional metal at two farms at its Kolomela mine, as well as options to expand its existing base at the larger mine, the nearby Sishen. “This is only a fraction of the addition to our mineral endowment from a resources perspective,” Kumba CEO Mpumi Zikalala tells the FM.
“One would think that after so many years of iron ore mining in the Northern Cape, we wouldn’t be able to make such finds,” she says. “But what’s interesting is that as our geologists continue doing the work — and we are clearly funding this from an exploration perspective — we’ve been able to add to both our resources and convert them into reserves, and keep extending the mine lives.” It’s perhaps not surprising, therefore, that for the past 17 or 18 years, the life of mine at Kumba’s properties has always been 14-15 years.
Wanblad says Anglo has no interest in selling the group’s 40% stake in the Samancor joint venture. Manganese production is worth about 2Mt on an unattributable basis and though it forms a minor part of Anglo Teck, South Africa controls 70%-80% of total world ore resources. The strategic value of the manganese, used in steelmaking but with potential for battery use, is clear to see. “It is a wonderful option in our portfolio,” said Wanblad of manganese in general (the group also owns Australian assets).
“The Kalahari, if you’re going to be in manganese, is probably the most important basin in the world — not because of quality, but because of pure size,” says South32 CEO Graham Kerr. He told the FM in February: “Having a footprint in that market is important, but it’s tough in South Africa because you get battered by things, such as what’s going on with Transnet in terms of reliable cheap access to ports.
“That’s a challenge for us ... but I also don’t think we’re an active divester.” There’s been speculation since Exxaro Resources announced the purchase of Ntsimbintle Holdings’s stake in the Tshipi manganese mine that the region’s diverse field of producers could be consolidated, if only because fewer producers could capitalise on scarce port and rail facilities. Kerr won’t commit South32 to the role of consolidator, however. In any event, South32 and Anglo are joined at the hip.
Under the umbrella agreement between them, the joint venture parties need each party’s approval. If one decides to sell, they must sell together. “So it’s quite a tightly structured agreement,” says Kerr. “Anglo’s been a great partner. It’s not a seller. We know that, and we’re probably not looking to sell off either.”
Similarly, they need to work as one if consolidation is planned, which it isn’t currently. That, though, turns on improved Transnet performance. While the mining sector is hoping to participate in the utility’s operational performance, it needs government to step up.
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