Pan African Resources broke into the JSE’s top 40 index last week with a market capitalisation of R65bn. Once a gold mining minnow, the share has tripled in value in the past 12 months. That was before another week of incredible gains for the gold price, spurred on by continued geopolitical distress. Goldman Sachs has increased its target price for bullion to $5,400 an ounce.
While not quite at that level yet at the time of writing, the metal did burst through $5,000/oz, which converts to a record rand gold price of R2.6m/kg. Investors still seeking exposure to gold miners rather than the physical metal, which tends to run ahead of equities, may conclude that opportunity in the likes of Pan African is long gone. They are probably right. Ditto for the JSE’s other main gold shares: AngloGold Ashanti (up 215%) and Gold Fields (up 180%) in the past 12 months.
But there are a number of gold juniors and exploration options on other bourses that haven’t caught up yet. Riskier, especially as some are not in production, they are nonetheless worth considering provided they pass the sniff test on management track record, resource quality and jurisdictional risk.
The rationale for looking at some riskier gold shares is the assumption that while the gold price won’t cruise around $5,000-plus an ounce forever, the cracks in the Western world order partly motivating debasement trade are sufficient to keep bullion elevated. This will incentivise new production and relatively cheap new sources of capital. It will also stoke the merger & acquisition interest of gold majors seeking to renew or grow their resources.
Gold Fields CEO Mike Fraser told the FM in December that his company, while not prioritising M&A, would prey on juniors for production, especially if their resources were sufficiently developed to provide near-term cash flow and growth. So what are the options in the gold junior space?
Listed in New York, Caledonia Mining Corp is a Zimbabwean gold miner which has profitably operated the 80,000oz/year Blanket gold mine for years. Led by CEO Mark Learmonth, a former banker, Caledonia pays quarterly dividends and has an established following among investors. The market is giving companies such as Caledonia fresh rein to build. This month it raised $150m for its $484m, 200,000oz/year Bilboes project.
Not exactly the retiring type, Learmonth says Bilboes will help Zimbabwe reclaim its role as a honeypot for international gold investors. He may have a point because metal price gains across the periodic table have encouraged a fresh wave of investment in Zimbabwe’s mining sector, including by Kuvimba Mining House and Namib Minerals. These two companies will spend $300m reopening mines. It’s worth noting that gold production in Zimbabwe was up 40% last year.
Cracks in the Western world order partly motivating debasement trade are sufficient to keep bullion elevated
Namib Minerals operates How mine, which first opened in 1941. Ibrahima Tall, formerly of Canada’s Semafo before it was bought by Endeavour Mining, presided over modest production of 36,600oz in 2024, generating adjusted ebitda of $25m. However, the company is running studies on its mothballed Redwing and Mazowe operations. If they sound familiar, it’s because they were once run by Mzi Khumalo of Metallon Corp fame. Speculative, perhaps, but Tall is targeting $300m-$400m. Listed on the Nasdaq, Namib shares quadrupled on January 20.
Montage Gold CEO Martino De Ciccio, a former executive of La Mancha Resource Capital, a US mining fund founded by Egyptian telecoms mogul Naguib Sawiris, was ahead of the curve in 2024 when he sought funds for Koné, an $800m gold project in Ivory Coast. He sold forward $625m of gold, almost 20% of the project’s forecast output, to Canadian royalty company Wheaton Precious Metals at $440/oz. This was when gold was already trading at $2,200, so at current price levels it is a huge discount.
In addition to Koné, Montage recently acquired African Gold, which owns the Didievi and Wendé projects, both in Ivory Coast. As for Koné, its development is progressing without mishap so far, with production pencilled in for the second quarter of 2027.
West Wits Mining is adding a new chapter in 2026 to Joburg’s colourful history with the launch of production at its Qala shallows mine in western Joburg. Qala will become South Africa’s first new gold mine in 15 years. Production is modest at 70,000oz/year, but its technical risk is relatively small. Gold mines in South Africa descend to levels of 4km, so by the country’s standards Qala shallows, as its name suggests, is but a pothole at about 850m. At today’s gold prices, it is forecast to make healthy profits. There are also long-term plans to raise production to 200,000oz/year. West Wits is listed in Australia, but CEO Rudi Deysel says a listing on the JSE is coming soon.
The last six months of 2025 have been pivotal for Robex Resources, a Canadian junior which operates Mali’s Nampala mine. It launched a A$120m IPO on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) in June ahead of an all-share merger with Predictive Discovery in December — a deal that paved the way for the combination of their Guinea assets, Robex’s Kiniero mine and Predictive’s Bankan project. Supplemented by Nampala, the new, larger Robex will produce about 350,000oz/year.
The company is led by Australian Matt Wilcox, a chemical engineer by training who is highly experienced in West African mining, having worked at Tietto Minerals as CEO and developed the Sanbrado mine for West African Resources, another successful Australian midtier producer of exactly the type Robex is hoping to become. The start-up represents Wilcox and his team’s sixth successful build in 15 years.
As a sidenote, the Australian junior mining model has long proved to be a winner in West Africa. ASX-listed Perseus Mining, up five times in value over the past five years, is perhaps the standout example.
What goes up …?
US President Donald Trump’s comments at the World Economic Forum may have been performative, but they are part of a tumultuous administration that is becoming era-defining. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney described US trade and foreign policy as a rupture in the world order — a view somewhat tamped down by Christine Lagarde, head of the European Central Bank. The markets, however, are increasingly driving funds away from the US.
Investors are fleeing currencies and treasuries. A huge sell-off in the Japanese bond market last week is the latest example of investors rejecting heavy fiscal spending, said Bloomberg News shortly after gold surged through $5,000/oz.
“Gold has delivered two years of very strong performance, raising natural questions about how much upside remains,” says George Cheveley, natural resources manager at Ninety One. “The key drivers, however, still look supportive: a weaker dollar, ongoing geopolitical tensions, expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts, heightened concern over fiscal deficits and sustained central bank buying.”
Central bank buying, which has become a major feature of the gold price’s performance since 2022, remains an important factor, according to Morgan Stanley, which has upgraded its gold price forecast to $5,700/oz. The bank’s view is that the gold market remains in a bull phase because central banks appear less sensitive to price. They may, it argues, take the route of Poland, which previously targeted a 30% of total reserves weighting for gold. Now it has said it wants a specific amount of about 700t, from 550t at present.
“With the [US dollar index] falling, physical demand still good and elevated geopolitical risk, the rally in gold is not over, in our view,” says Morgan Stanley. “We highlight our second half of 2026 bull case of $5,700/oz, implying a further 14% upside from current levels.”
Nedbank Securities has forecast an average gold price of $4,500/oz this year. Analyst Arnold van Graan says this implies “a potential run towards $5,000/oz” (at the time of the writing of the forecast, and since proved true). But it also implies a correction and prompts the question of what happens in the long term. Gold can’t keep rising forever.
The bank says that in the long term gold will average $3,000/oz. The view chimes with an outlook that the world has been changed forever in the past year. “We believe some of the geopolitical and financial trends seen over the past year could become permanent structural changes, supporting a higher long-term gold price,” says Van Graan.
If this is the case, accessing future production now and those juniors that have expansion on the horizon, might present reasonable access to gold.
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