The real state of the ANC a year into the GNU was captured poignantly by President Cyril Ramaphosa in his opening address — behind closed doors — to the party’s national executive committee (NEC) meeting last weekend.
The FM understands that Ramaphosa lashed his audience for their fixation on the party’s upcoming succession race, instead of focusing on ways to restore the ANC to electoral dominance.
In his rebuke, which surprised many, Ramaphosa urged leaders to contain their ambitions, because the upcoming local government election required their full attention. That follows the ANC’s dismal electoral performance in 2024 and the shocking state of governance and service delivery in municipalities across the country.
Ramaphosa’s second and final term as ANC president ends in 2027, when the party will gather to elect his successor. That person is likely then to stand as leader and, in effect, presidential candidate in the 2029 general election. Scandal-prone Deputy President Paul Mashatile is the front-runner but is set to be challenged by party secretary-general Fikile Mbalula.
Though former police minister Senzo Mchunu had been emerging as a dark horse, allegations of ties to the criminal underworld have put the brakes on his campaign. He was slowly gaining momentum, particularly as a candidate who could take on former president Jacob Zuma’s MK Party in KwaZulu-Natal, his home province.
Campaigners for business tycoon Patrice Motsepe have also been hard at work, but senior ANC insiders canvassed by the FM dismiss talk of his candidature, saying he would prefer to be the president of world football body Fifa, not of the ANC and the country.
The battle for the party’s presidency may in the end remain a two-horse race between Mashatile and Mbalula — but it is early days. As UK prime minister Harold Wilson pointed out, a week in politics is a long time.
In his closing address to the NEC, which was public, Ramaphosa reprised his no-holds-barred opening critique in more diplomatic terms. “Our cadres must embody the values of service, humility and revolutionary commitment. The people are watching, history is calling and the future is waiting.”
The fixation of some ANC leaders on the internal election reveals they are in denial about the party’s decline — otherwise why would they skirmish over what is fast becoming a political carcass?
Prof David Everatt at the Wits School of Governance captured the problem in an opinion piece published by News24 in May, “The ANC’s Trendline of Inevitability”.
“Pity the ANC pollsters. They are surrounded by politicians who seem unperturbed by the electoral defeat of 2024, which has not triggered any positive change in course or corrective action,” wrote Everatt, who was himself once an ANC pollster.
“ANC politicians simply pivoted to the (to them) comforting notion that the ANC was at least still the largest party in the GNU, and they were therefore still able to call the shots and hog the gravy. Corruption and ineptitude still dominate headlines, and ANC politicians still don’t seem to give a damn.”
I suspect voters are not going to turn out in big numbers in the next election
— David Everatt
Speaking to the FM this week, Everatt says the ANC remains on a downward trajectory and is likely to lose further support in the local government election. The way the party sees its drubbing last year merely as a “strategic setback” illustrates a level of disbelief and possibly denial at the erosion of support.
The decline in the next election will likely be worse than anticipated, because the ANC — Ramaphosa in particular and his ministers — are focusing much of their energy on the upcoming G20 summit in November. “They are really playing to this big global audience,” says Everatt.
Does this matter to voters? Likely not. “I suspect voters are not going to turn out in big numbers in the next election.” Perhaps then the reality will hit home for the ANC — then again, maybe not.
The conclusion is that coalitions are here to stay. The ANC’s messy GNU partnership with the DA also came under scrutiny in the NEC meeting. As a compromise with the large number of NEC members who wanted the DA kicked out, the party resolved to rather expand the GNU to include DA opponents ActionSA and the National Coloured Congress.
The ANC still has to run this decision to add new parties past its existing partners, including the DA. This is specified in the statement of intent signed by all GNU partners last year — a document the ANC has routinely ignored, particularly the clause setting up a dispute resolution mechanism. Its so-called “clearing house” remains without terms of reference and is simply not functional.
An Ipsos poll in April found that South Africans were becoming more sceptical about the viability of the GNU as the ANC-DA skirmishes continue.
An ANC in decline had long been inevitable, given its neglect of governance and its priority shift to self-enrichment of the elite, away from the needs of ordinary South Africans. South Africa’s problem now, Everatt says, is that none of the other parties is taking advantage of the ANC’s denial and continued megalomania.
“Every opposition party needs to understand they are in an election already. Voters don’t just wake up and make a decision on election day.”
Opposition parties appear listless against a limping ANC that is bereft of ideas. Yet power abhors a vacuum — who will occupy it, and when?
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