Election season is officially upon us. Voters can look forward to a few months of wooing and cuddling before the results come in and their relationship with political parties immediately returns to abuse-as-normal.
This year will be slightly different — about 350 political parties have thrown their hats into the ring. Voters can expect the usual two ballots, but the second, bumper one, will include independent candidates for the first time in national and provincial elections.
While most South Africans switched off for the festive season, there was no rest for politicians who are gearing up for what is likely to be one of the fiercest campaigns in 30 years. Backroom deals were struck, manifestos were polished and donors were tapped for funds.
A significant development in December was the not-altogether-funny announcement by ex-con Jacob Zuma that he wants to return to finish what he started — and push South Africa all the way over the cliff. He is partnering with the likes of co-thug Ace Magashule, the former ANC secretary-general, who neatly folded his own political start-up, the African Congress for Transformation, into Zuma’s Umkhonto we Sizwe (MK) Party. They have been joined by enthusiastic Zuma backer Andile Mngxitama of the Black First Land First party which failed dismally in the 2019 election, unable to secure a single seat in parliament.
Also in December another relatively new kid on the block, ActionSA, which posted an impressive performance in the 2021 local elections, launched its manifesto in Hammanskraal, getting its now nationwide campaign off to an early start.
President Cyril Ramaphosa is likely to announce an election date when he delivers his state of the nation address on February 8 — the content of which will be generally pointless because the elections will follow in a matter of months, not leaving much time to implement any ground-breaking policies. Especially for the ANC, with its glacial approach to getting things done.
The content will be generally pointless because the elections will follow in a matter of months, not leaving much time to implement any ground-breaking policies. Especially for the ANC, with its glacial approach to getting things done
All of the larger parties will launch their manifestos in the next two months in two crucial provinces, KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng, far and away the most populous, which are key battlegrounds for winning hearts and minds.
The ANC in Gauteng is on the ropes, having won just 50.19% of the vote in 2019. The party lost all three metros in the province to opposition coalitions in 2021, but has since regained two of them through a “working relationship” with the EFF.
The ANC in KZN is also in panic mode — its share of the vote plunged nearly 10 percentage points between 2014 and 2019. In the 2021 election, it dipped sharply to just 41.48%. This followed the July riots that year in which more than 300 people died and the provincial economy was dealt a severe blow. The following year the province was devastated by floods. Support is rising in KZN for the EFF, the DA and the IFP, and now the MK Party has further muddied the waters for the ANC. If it is vulnerable in KZN, its grip on power nationally must also be in the balance.
Newcomer Rise Mzansi launched a sober, realistic manifesto in Pretoria last weekend. It was a welcome departure from the unimplementable drivel that sometimes characterises such documents. Songezo Zibi’s party is making some of its rivals nervous with its community-centred approach and its commitment to the long game — it says it will be happy with 5%-7% of the vote in this, its inaugural election.
The Electoral Commission of South Africa disbursed its funding to parties this month, the lion’s share going to the ANC as the largest party in parliament.
Moses Mabhida Stadium in eThekwini will host several manifesto launches: the EFF on February 10, the ANC on February 24 and the IFP on March 10. The DA has chosen Pretoria, the only metro still under its control in Gauteng, for its manifesto launch on February 17. Rival the Freedom Front Plus will have its manifesto launch in Pretoria on February 25 — aiming for an increase in support to give it 25 seats in parliament this time around.
While the coming months are set to be characterised by political noise and hysteria, it is crucial to remember that change generally happens slowly in South Africa. This year promises much, good and bad — but the shift away from one-party dominance is unlikely to be sudden or overnight.
There is one certainty: our democracy is coming into its own.
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