Former FirstRand chair Roger Jardine’s political project Change Starts Now (CSN) is a nonstarter.
South Africa’s tough political terrain is still dominated by the ANC, despite the party’s electoral decline since 2016 as voters grew disenchanted with its mismanagement, incompetence and corruption.
But only the EFF has benefited directly — and not very much — from the ANC’s woes. ANC supporters who have given up on the party generally just stay at home rather than vote for someone else. The challenge for the opposition has been, and still is, how to persuade this group to turn out to back a different party.
The ANC’s projected loss of Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal in the 2024 elections does not mark a sudden shift in the political mood, sparked by load-shedding or economic decline; it is the continuation of a steady erosion of support due to years of taking voters for granted.
Jardine tells the FM his movement’s research shows that “millions” of South Africans are unhappy with the political and economic situation and want to vote for an opposition party. CSN is a “fresh and invigorated” option to the parties now available.
It’s true that existing opposition parties have had little success winning over ANC voters. The multiparty charter (MPC) initiated by the DA marks a shift in strategy by these parties. The theory is, the prospect of a viable opposition coalition victory next year will lure otherwise apathetic voters to actually cast their ballots — and they will have an array of choices. The MPC is basically an attempt to unite the fractured opposition landscape.
So what chance does a new upstart, albeit one headed by someone with ties to struggle activists, have with a run-up of about six months to the 2024 elections?
Pretty much no chance of unseating the ANC; very little chance of even getting a seat in parliament; and a rather strong chance of further splintering the opposition vote. If it does win a couple of seats in parliament though, the likelihood is that it would join the MPC.
Voters have lost faith in the ANC and our project is about giving voters what they want. So we are determined that our strategy offers hope to those voters currently disenfranchised from politics
— Roger Jardine
On the risk of splitting the opposition vote, Jardine says: “Voters are indicating that they have lost faith in the ANC and our project is about giving voters what they want. So we are determined that our electoral strategy offers hope to those voters currently disenfranchised from politics.”
The question is whether CSN has the reach and appeal to provide a home for those voters. There are few signs that the movement has done any groundwork to attain that kind of reach — or that it even has enough people to do the work required to build a base ranging from Thohoyandou to Lusikisiki and Joburg to Kimberley.
This is not the only reason it is doomed. Leadership recognition is also crucial. Jardine stands little chance of gaining the kind of recognition required in the next few months. In 2019, the Socialist Revolutionary Workers Party, launched by the 40,000-strong National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa, contested elections. It had strong name recognition in Irvin Jim and Zwelinzima Vavi, but it received only about 24,000 votes.
But what of the other personalities linked to CSN, such as civil society activists Nicole Fritz and Mark Heywood?
Fritz for one is seen as the public face of the battle by the Helen Suzman Foundation against home affairs minister Aaron Motsoaledi’s attempt to scrap the Zimbabwean exemption permit — and immigration is a hot-button issue, particularly among the poor and marginalised. So those voters who are aware of Fritz might be put off by her rather than attracted.
Then there is South Africa’s history of such newly minted parties. The most successful party launched relatively close to a national election was the now defunct COPE, which was formed ahead of the 2009 poll and won about 7% of the vote.
That it did so can be attributed to its origins as a breakaway from the ANC after the bitter succession battle at Polokwane, led by those who could not stomach Jacob Zuma. Entire structures of the ANC defected to COPE, including more than a handful of high-profile leaders, such as Mosiuoa Lekota.
The EFF, which is expected to do better than its usual 10% next year, was also born from a split in the ANC. When Julius Malema was expelled, he took a sizeable chunk of the ANC Youth League with him.
But most upstart parties have struggled. Mamphela Ramphele’s Agang for example was an embarrassing failure; it did wrangle two seats in parliament in the first election it contested but fizzled out shortly afterwards. In the last election, new parties that entered parliament included the African Transformation Movement and GOOD, which could be seen as splinter groups of the ANC and the DA respectively.
One way Jardine could succeed would be if the ANC were to undergo a major split between now and the elections — but so far there is no sign that might happen, Mavuso Msimang’s departure notwithstanding.
While saving South Africa from the ANC’s bungling is a compelling mission, and Jardine appears sincere, it will take a lot more than deep pockets, the right patter and a handful of activists to make a real impact.
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