The City of Joburg could have yet another mayor by the end of the year — exploding streets are far from the end of the once magnificent city’s woes.
This comes as the Patriotic Alliance (PA) is preparing to pull out of its coalition arrangement with the ANC in key cities, party leader Gayton McKenzie tells the FM. The decision, to be ratified by a PA leadership meeting in September, has been all but agreed to by the power brokers in the party. As a result, the ANC-EFF coalition (now running the city) could hit the skids again should their largely absent mayor, Al Jama-ah’s Kabelo Gwamanda, face another motion of no confidence.
McKenzie is livid. For the PA, the beef with the ANC is personal.
After it propped up the ANC in councils in Gauteng and the Northern Cape, not a single party leader came to its defence when the ANC veterans and youth leagues maligned the PA, saying the ruling party should not be in bed with ex-convicts.
More broadly, McKenzie and ActionSA chair Michael Beaumont are raging against a potential ANC-DA tie-up in 2024 or 2026.
A grand coalition has long been an enticing prospect; observers argue that political stability is crucial as South Africa makes the natural shift away from single-party dominance. But smaller opposition parties are not having it, fearing that it would squeeze them out (of relevance) and curtail any prospect of their ascent into the real power seats — such as the one now occupied by the hapless Gwamanda.
Strip away the noise and it is clear to see what is at play.
The DA has thrown itself into a multiparty opposition tie-up, which could end up being a pre-election pact to unseat the ANC. While McKenzie and Beaumont cite clandestine meetings between the ANC and DA to argue their narrative about a partnership between the two parties, the facts on the table paint a different picture.
First, if the DA wanted to enter into a coalition with the ANC, it has had ample opportunity to do so in Gauteng metros. It was booted out of power in Joburg and Ekurhuleni — in the former, with the PA’s assistance.
Second, John Steenhuisen’s inaugural speech after being re-elected as DA leader was centred on bringing opposition parties together, in a pact to take control of the country. His leadership ticket is based on taking a shot at making an opposition coalition work. The DA has gone all in on this, even agreeing to step back from leading the initiative, appointing an independent mediator and dropping the “moonshot pact” name, which its partners insisted on. It has demonstrated its commitment to the initiative, despite other parties claiming that the national convention this week is a big song and dance with little substance.
Above all else, grand coalitions are options for countries facing crisis or in post-crisis situations, when the need for unity and rebuilding trumps narrow party interests
But, and this is crucial, what happens if the pact fails to unseat the ANC? So far, it simply does not have the numbers to do so and politics, in the end, is a maths game.
In the latest pact meeting the DA made it clear that should the partners fail to obtain a majority, in effect, it would be back to the drawing board.
That could mean back to the opposition benches for the DA and its pact partners as the ANC teams up with opposition minions, from the EFF to the African Transformation Movement, with South Africa experiencing pretty much more of the same for the next five years — lurching from one crisis to the next as the economy crumbles and lawlessness becomes more deeply entrenched (is that even possible?).
Or the DA and ANC could set their differences aside and work together on a clearly defined set of principles and goals to pull the country out of the morass. The ANC may yet retain its national majority in 2024, but in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, it may have to draw on opposition party partnerships. Given the experience in Gauteng metros since 2021 and the state of those cities, it is clear that tie-ups with fledgling parties without government experience is not going to make a measurable difference in the lives of citizens. Besides, research by Stellenbosch University, reported in the FM last week, shows that voters who have tired of the ANC are not voting for opposition parties: they are checking out of the electoral process and simply not voting.
What is seen, globally, as the most logical rationale for a grand coalition is precisely what South Africa is now experiencing, particularly at local government level. Above all else, grand coalitions are options for countries facing crisis or in post-crisis situations, when the need for unity and rebuilding trumps narrow party interests.
South Africa is arguably emerging from its own post-war era: nine years of state degradation, leading to incompetence and sloth, corruption, mafia-style cartels operating in key sectors, a service delivery crisis in most small towns and rural villages, an energy crisis, a pending water crisis, poor education outcomes, a creaking public health sector and dreadful unemployment. A grand coalition option, then, should be under consideration by all parties, not just the largest ones, where the best brains in each are put forward to help get the country back on track.
South Africa can no longer afford the luxury of narrow party interests; there is simply too much at stake.
The alternative: the country becomes a macrocosm of the City of Joburg — teeming with opportunities, yet buckling under the weight of ineptitude and political strife.
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