What South Africa has learnt about President Cyril Ramaphosa since 2018 is that he is indecisive, consults ad nauseam and then finally takes a decision that has all the impact of a damp squib.
His eagerly awaited cabinet reshuffle is likely to be true to form. His spokesperson told journalists last week that Ramaphosa was “applying his mind”, echoing his boss’s comments ahead of the ANC’s January 8 statement.
Ramaphosa said then: “Wait for the moment when the president has applied his mind and stop asking when that is going to happen. The president will apply his mind and, as always, we will be coming to you all and the nation and telling you what will happen. Relax, have a cup of coffee, sit back and watch this space.”
Relax, have a cup of coffee, sit back and watch this space
— Cyril Ramaphosa
In other words, there will be much hand-wringing, navel-gazing and interminable consultation by the first citizen before he rings any changes to the cabinet.
This is causing nervous giggles and sweaty palms at Luthuli House and among the national executive committee (NEC). Party leaders are painfully aware that they are running out of time to overhaul the ANC’s tarnished image ahead of the 2024 elections — it seems to have finally dawned on them that actual delivery is the only way to improve the party’s electoral prospects.
Ramaphosa has everything going for him when he picks his new cabinet. It’s his final term in office so he can sack anyone he wants, regardless of their clout within the party, because maintaining a power base is no longer of overriding importance.
Another advantage is that the overwhelming majority in the newly elected NEC is loyal to Ramaphosa. He is unlikely to face much dissent, no matter how ruthlessly he wields the axe.
Where implementation is unsatisfactory, action will be taken
— Cyril Ramaphosa
And he has had plenty of time to assess the performance of the incumbent ministers.
When announcing his cabinet after the 2019 elections, Ramaphosa boldly proclaimed that those he was appointing “must realise that the expectations of the South African people have never been greater” and that they shouldered a “great responsibility”.
That is even more true in 2023 than it was back then.
Ramaphosa said at the time the performance of ministers, individually and collectively, would be closely monitored against specific outcomes. “Where implementation is unsatisfactory, action will be taken.”
Deciding who to cull and who to keep should be a straightforward exercise.
Finance minister Enoch Godongwana, who was appointed in 2021, has performed well and is a keeper. But both mineral resources & energy minister Gwede Mantashe and public enterprises minister Pravin Gordhan should be shifted or axed due to their woeful management of the energy crisis and Eskom. That is a no-brainer.
Police minister Bheki Cele has been another abject failure. The intrepid crime-scene hopper has no interest in actually addressing criminality and lawlessness; just the screen time his appearances at crime scenes generate seems to be enough for him.
Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, the minister for co-operative governance & traditional affairs, is well past her sell-by date. The widespread collapse of municipalities is at the root of the service delivery crisis, yet she pranced around fighting Ramaphosa for another shot at power in December. The other obvious reason to fire her is that she defied the party line in the parliamentary vote on whether to launch an impeachment process against the president over Phala Phala.
Naledi Pandor performs as well as she can, given the ANC’s chaotic foreign policy. But the minister of international relations should stay in her lane. Bloomberg quotes her as having told a business gathering that repeated outages at Eskom should be seen as an “attack on the country” and “an oppositional act against South Africa”.
Pandor might be one of the longest-serving ministers in the cabinet but appears to still not realise the causes of South Africa’s energy crisis lie at the door of her own party — years of ineptitude on the part of successive ANC administrations, and internal sabotage that is often linked to internecine party battles.
Another person whose time has run out is basic education minister Angie Motshekga, who has presided over the crucial portfolio — and its decline — for way too long. Why Blade Nzimande is a minister at all remains a mystery.
The point is, sorting the wheat from the chaff is a simple matter.
Perhaps Ramaphosa can at the same time further streamline the cabinet. In 2019, he merged various portfolios to shrink the size of his cabinet from 36 ministers to 28. But he retained 36 deputy ministers, and even added some. If the achievements of his ministers are hard to discern, those of the deputy ministers are totally invisible. What have Sdumo Dlamini, David Mahlobo, Fikile Majola or Phumulo Masualle done since 2019?
Hand-wringing simply won’t cut it any more
It is difficult to tell.
Standing for re-election was a declaration by Ramaphosa that he had the appetite to lead the ANC and the country for another term.
During his first term he was hobbled by a mix of his own cautious leadership style and party factionalism. The latter, at least, is less of a factor now.
If he is to save his legacy and his party, his leadership style has to change. Hand-wringing simply won’t cut it any more.
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