Former President Thabo Mbeki asked a crucial question this week — what happens if the Phala Phala saga sees President Cyril Ramaphosa removed from office shortly into his second term as ANC president?
It is a valid question and one that business and investors would surely want answered.
Mbeki has repeatedly criticised the leadership of the ANC and its lack of courage to take decisions, but his comments on Saturday were more probing than critical.
Former state security director-general, and a vassal of former president Jacob Zuma, Arthur Fraser submitted an affidavit to the Hawks in June detailing the alleged hiding of millions of dollars in foreign currency at Ramaphosa’s Phala Phala game farm, a subsequent burglary, and a cover-up pointing fingers at the president for corrupt dealings.
Parliament has since instituted an inquiry to determine whether Ramaphosa has a case to answer — it appointed an independent panel consisting of former chief justice Sandile Ngcobo, advocate Mahlape Sello and former judge Thokozile Masipa to conduct the impeachment inquiry.
The panel has given Ramaphosa until November 6 to respond to the allegations.
In the meantime, the Sunday World’s George Matlala reported on a significant development in the saga — Ramaphosa’s head of security Wally Rhoode has been asked to provide reasons to the police why he should not be suspended over the way he handled the matter.
The newspaper reported that Rhoode was “slapped with a notice of suspension” for his failure to report the robbery according to proper channels.
This follows Ramaphosa’s reply to a question in parliament last month where he was asked why he failed to report the burglary at his farm. Ramaphosa told the house that he had reported the matter to Rhoode.
“I reported it as one would report, and when you report to a police general you expect that processes will unfold in the way that they should and in the end the police general will be able to answer that question,” he responded.
It appears increasingly likely that Rhoode will take the brunt of the fall-out — but senior law enforcement officials speaking on condition of anonymity also questioned his conduct in the matter.
Either way, Ramaphosa should provide the panel with a response in just under two weeks, well ahead of the ANC’s December elective conference and potentially with enough time for the panel to decide whether he should face impeachment proceedings.
Our president is under a lot of pressure about the Phala Phala farm matter ... what relevance does that all have to the leadership that will come out of Nasrec in December?
— Thabo Mbeki
Mbeki asked a pertinent question in this regard: “Our president is under a lot of pressure, I am talking about President Ramaphosa. He’s under a lot of pressure about the Phala Phala farm matter. There are criminal investigations going on, parliament is doing its own processes, the Reserve Bank is doing what it has to do and I don’t know whatever else is doing what. What relevance does that all have to the leadership that will come out of Nasrec at the end of December?”
In short, what it means is that if Ramaphosa does have a case to answer — and it is crucial to recall that it depends on the word of his political opponents and the dodgy former state security DG Arthur Fraser — what happens if he is forced to step aside?
There are multiple parts in answering this question. The first is that Ramaphosa’s opponents in the run-up to the conference will milk the Phala Phala issue for all it’s worth in a bid to sway Ramaphosa loyalists to buy into their push to scrap the ANC’s step aside rule, thereby snuffing out the hope of any possible “renewal” or “reform” of the governing party. This has been the plan all along — the way they see it, Ramaphosa’s allies would sacrifice the rule in order to keep their man in the top post because, according to the rule, should Ramaphosa face criminal charges over Phala Phala he would be forced to step aside.
If, and it remains a big if, Ramaphosa does have a case to answer and should he opt to step aside — his deputy would become crucial. Perhaps confident that their man is innocent, Ramaphosa’s faction has selected potentially the weakest possible running mate for the president in terms of broader ANC and societal support, Senzo Mchunu.
Mchunu can perhaps be described as an ethical Ace Magashule or David Mabuza — with limited sway outside his own province, KwaZulu-Natal, if indeed he has any left there since his unceremonious departure in 2017.
To select a candidate who lost to Magashule at the last ANC conference is a clear sign of political naivety. The front-runner for the post of deputy president remains ANC treasurer Paul Mashatile, whose campaign was strengthened with the announcement of Mchunu on Ramaphosa’s slate — but opponents aside, Ramaphosa’s caucus abandoned the strongest possible deputy president candidate in their arsenal, justice minister Ronald Lamola. This has splintered his already fractured support base even further.
The simple answer to Mbeki’s question then is if Ramaphosa falls on his sword, months or even a few years into his second term, expect a Mashatile presidency faster than even he may have anticipated or wanted.
The more complex answer is expect the ANC to face humiliation at the 2024 polls — after Ramaphosa was punted as the last hope to renew the party, should he fall it is, frankly, all lost.
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