An ANC/DA tie-up, with the EFF as the main opposition, would be the best coalition outcome for citizens post-2024.
The build-up to elections is always noisy. Parties posture about who they will or won’t work with. What we know is that what is said before elections is never cast in stone. It can be daunting for citizens as we enter the coalition terrain at national and provincial level.
What we have seen at local government level is that our parties, by and large, lack the political maturity to work together to improve the lives of citizens. Instead, it is an endless stream of nonsensical politicking and bile, and this is mostly about jostling for power. Heaven knows what they do with it when they get it but it has not translated to a marked improvement in the lives of ordinary South Africans.
So what should voters hope for from coalition deals, post-2024? Stability, says Richard Calland, convener of the Coalition Politics Initiative.
Stability would ensure policy certainty, investment, a growing economy, that people are absorbed into jobs, that SA keeps moving forward. Instead, what we have seen in coalitions cobbled together and including small, marginal political players is that these tie-ups are far from stable. While mayors, councillors and administrators continue to receive their salaries, their political immaturity and point-scoring give rise to instability. Ordinary citizens suffer the real consequences.
The ANC stands to lose Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal and the DA has real cause for concern about the Western Cape
I am not entirely convinced the ANC will slip below 50% nationally in 2024. But two, or even all three of the country’s economic hubs will be up for grabs — Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and, potentially, the Western Cape. The ANC is also on shaky ground in former strongholds such as the Northern Cape, with its support down from 64% in 2014 to 57.5% in 2019 and 50.5% in 2021; and the Free State, down from 69.9% in 2014 to 61% in 2019 and 51% in 2021.
The ANC stands to lose Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal and in the Western Cape the DA has cause for concern, having fallen from 59% in 2014 to 55% in 2019 and 53% in 2021.
While the DA is noisy about who it will not work with, a closer look at its most recent election results shows it is not a party on the rise. It grew marginally in just one province between 2014 and 2019 and very slightly in four provinces in 2021, not enough to make a big impact. While its coalition pacts have allowed it to govern most of the eight metros, they are on shaky ground, at the mercy of smaller parties, and in some cases they are in charge because the EFF has allowed them to be.
The EFF is the only party of the big three which has grown between 2014 and 2019 in every province. It declined slightly in seven provinces in 2021. EFF leader Julius Malema this week told News24 that the strategic objective of his party is to destroy the ANC. If one views the EFF through this lens, most of its flip-flopping and its outlandish stance on issues make sense. Reared on ANC politics, Malema knows that the quickest route to the ANC’s destruction is through its own poor choices
Hence he takes a keen interest in its internal politics. It is why former EFF chair Dali Mpofu is defending former president Jacob Zuma and disgraced public protector Busisiwe Mkhwebane — after the EFF had made them public enemies. It is why Malema became a radical economic transformation troll after Nasrec. It is why he now says he favours ANC treasurer-general Paul Mashatile over Cyril Ramaphosa to lead the ANC.
It is an old strategy: divide and conquer.
What the ANC and the DA should be worried about is that their electoral prospects are waning and they both need to reimagine the way they conduct politics. What would each bring to the table in a potential coalition? For one, the ANC could bring experience in government while the DA could bring oversight from its experience in the opposition benches. The DA, in a pact with the ANC, could also force the best out of the erstwhile liberation party and exert influence over its appointments to key posts, to ensure that the interests of citizens, not party bosses, are paramount.
In any event, it is likely the EFF is reaching its support ceiling and would remain relevant in future elections mainly as a kingmaker
It would not be about squeezing out the EFF, or any other small political player, but allowing them to grow into the opposition space, in the interests of their own constituencies and not in the interests of ensuring posts and tenders in return for coalition support. In any event, it is likely the EFF is reaching its support ceiling and would remain relevant in future elections mainly as a kingmaker.
Calland says it would be a game-changer if parties begin putting “principle before power” and “citizens above transactional deals”. This is possible only if there are coalitions which are not susceptible to the whims of small players, bristling for a cut of the tender action or eyeing posts they would never have access to outside a coalition arrangement.
For an ANC/DA pact to work, they would have to begin viewing each other as opponents, not enemies. This difficult shift in perspective, says Calland, is not a sign of weakness but one of strength. It is common in countries such as Germany, which has decades of coalition experience.
Can SA’s two most popular parties put aside their differences for the sake of stability?
It is a big ask, but it can be done.
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