When DA federal executive chair Helen Zille tweeted this week that the party would no longer consider working with the ANC, any thoughts of a grand coalition between SA’s two biggest parties after the 2024 national elections evaporated.
But did they really?
“I have to be honest and admit that until fairly recently, I thought there were some decent people left in the ANC with whom we might one day be able to negotiate a new government,” Zille said. “That hope is now well and truly dashed. They are all indeed African National Criminals.”
She was referring to the brouhaha over the cash-stuffed furniture at President Cyril Ramaphosa’s Phala Phala game farm that was sparked recently by Arthur Fraser.
Fraser — entirely lacking in credibility though he may be — revealed the theft of what he says was $4m in the hope of sabotaging the president’s bid for re-election as ANC leader at the party’s December conference. The former spy boss is well and truly tainted, but Ramaphosa has done himself no favours by being less than candid about the burglary in February 2020 and the allegation that he bought the culprits’ silence so no awkward questions would be asked about his hidden stash of dollars.
Last week, ANC national executive committee member Nkenke Kekana, speaking in his personal capacity, called in to 702, promoting the idea of grand coalitions. He argued that the ANC and the DA were both more or less in the middle of the political spectrum — with the ANC left-of-centre and the DA to the right — but the consequence of partnering with smaller, more radical parties such as the EFF was that they shifted towards extremes.
He argued for a more pragmatic approach and for the ANC and the DA to consider “grand coalitions” in the best interests of the country. The more the ANC and the DA are pulled towards the extremes of the political spectrum, he said, the more the “national project” is undermined.
The EFF’s influence on ANC policy is clear — the breakaway party’s raison d’être is to shift the governing party closer to its radical positions on land and state intervention in the economy. Julius Malema and Floyd Shivambu have been more successful in driving ANC policy from outside the party than from within.
An ANC-EFF tie-up in 2024 could have a profound impact on the country’s economic trajectory.
Much water will still flow unter the bridge between now and the 2024 elections
SA ushered in democracy 28 years ago with a grand coalition, and coalition politics have been a feature of local government since. But the results of the 2016 local elections opened the coalition floodgates, marking the end of ANC invincibility. The 2021 local government elections continued the trend, and the ANC’s share of the national vote dipped below 50% for the first time.
Early indications are that 2024 will be more of the same. By-elections in Soweto earlier this month indicated that the swing away from the ANC is gathering pace — in ward 53 the party won just 32%, a remarkable collapse from the 58% it won just seven months ago in the November 2021 local elections and the spectacular 90% it won in 2011.
In the frenzied weeks in which parties had to form governments in hung councils after the 2021 polls, the political rumour mill was abuzz with talk that the ANC and the DA could work together in key councils. While the parties did co-operate in the Northern Cape, DA leader John Steenhuisen emphatically declared his party would not under any circumstances enter a formal coalition agreement with the ANC.
“An ANC-DA coalition is not in SA’s best interest,” he said at the time.
“Having dropped well below 50% nationally in this election, there is now a realistic prospect that the ANC will lose its majority in 2024.
“Voters need a crisp choice between ANC-EFF coalitions of corruption on the one hand (packed with corrupt, lawless, socialist, deployed cadres) and DA-led coalitions of clean government on the other (packed with honest, law-abiding, market-oriented, capable public officials).”
Zille shrewd political operator that she is, could be testing the waters to assess voter sentiment
But it was well known that Zille had not ruled out the possibility of working with the ANC, particularly at a national level. Her reference this week to “some decent people in the ANC” appeared to confirm the suspicion that if the ANC fell below 50% in 2024, the DA would be open to entering a coalition with “reformists” in the ruling party and ensuring that parties such as the EFF, ActionSA and the Freedom Front Plus did not gain too much leverage.
Despite Zille going on to say in her tweet that coalition hopes had been “well and truly dashed”, much water will still flow under the bridge between now and the elections.
A sub-50% share of the vote may be a distinct possibility for the ANC, but it is by no means a certainty and the question of coalition partners could remain moot. At the rate things are going, though — the jobs bloodbath, rising inflation, soaring fuel prices and a never-ending litany of governance failures — the party may very well have reached the end of the road by 2024.
Zille could truly be disappointed in Ramaphosa, or, shrewd political operator that she is, she could be testing the waters to assess voter sentiment. Either way, the next 24 months are going to be crucial and will fundamentally alter the country’s political trajectory — whether for the better, remains the burning question.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.