There is a theory in the ANC that only a complete loss of power can save it. The theory goes that once this happens, those who are in it for their stomachs will jump ship, leaving behind those who genuinely care about the organisation and the country and who will rebuild and even lead the ANC back to its position as the leader of society.
One leader even conjured up a vision of a man of the cloth as secretary-general, someone who would lend moral fibre as this miraculous, phoenix-like renewal takes shape. But history shows this theory up for the fanciful myth it is — once the ANC loses power, it battles to make a comeback.
The Western Cape is a prime example. It is easy to forget that the ANC was once the majority party in that province; it grew its support there from 33% in 1994 to 45% in 2004, but it’s been downhill ever since. It won a paltry 28% in the Western Cape in 2019.
Its performance in the City of Joburg is also instructive — after its dismal performance in the 2016 local government elections, when it lost the metro to the DA, the ANC did even worse this year despite the DA’s internal turmoil. Its support slipped from 44.9% to 33.2%. eThekwini is even more hair-raising — ANC support fell in 2016 to 59% and to 42.2% this year.
This shows the ANC’s strategy to regroup and rebuild after a setback is hopelessly flawed — simply because those who lead it are those who were responsible for its predicament in the first place. President Cyril Ramaphosa promised renewal and reform — but it did not happen because he relied on the very same leaders who had a hand in the destruction.
For the sake of unity Ramaphosa agreed to stand alongside Ace Magashule — a man who embodies everything that is wrong with the ANC and SA. He pandered to Jacob Zuma’s whims over and over even after the electorate had roundly rejected Zuma, and even as the former president did everything he could to egg on his supporters to undermine Ramaphosa and destabilise the country.
Are these a prerequisite? Who cares? As long as it begins delivering, as long as it buries its arrogance
The president refuses to fire useless ministers for fear of fracturing the party’s tenuous unity because of all the hidden daggers waiting for him to turn his back. Now these saboteurs are rounding on Eskom, as the utility’s feeding trough appears to be running dry. The unity ticket may have propelled Ramaphosa to power but it was antithetical to reform or renewal. The aim of the unity ticket was to stem the tide of the ANC’s electoral decline — but it was based on a false premise, that what society wanted was a united ANC.
The task for the ANC is to stop looking inwards and walk among ordinary citizens, who want a growing economy, jobs, access to water, electricity and sanitation and to be safe in their homes and on the streets.
Neither the ANC’s unity project nor its renewal are particularly high on the agenda of any ordinary citizen. Are these a prerequisite for the ANC to deliver on what the public really wants? Who cares? As long as it begins delivering, as long as it buries its arrogance. But it is so locked in its own mythology that the recent electoral bloodbath will be misdiagnosed and it will once again delude itself with renewal rhetoric, before it begins feeding off its own carcass in the run-up to its elective conference in December next year.
Ramaphosa remains a shoo-in for a second term because, astoundingly, he remains the best the ANC has. But the man he apparently wants as his deputy, Gwede Mantashe, would probably suck the country down the usual ANC rabbit hole of conspiracy theories, colour revolutions and archaic ideological bluster. On the upside, the electorate has caught on now. The ANC is no longer the fixed star around which everything orbits; it is a dying star, whose light has very nearly gone out.
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