Voter turnout is complex, particularly in these elections, amid a pandemic and a poll hastily organised by the Electoral Commission of SA. But the low voter turnout this year is neither new, nor surprising. It mirrors a trend which began in 2009.
The Midpoint Paper Series published a study by researcher Collette Schulz-Herzenberg in December, titled “The SA Non-Voter: An Analysis”, looking at voter apathy.
That study focused on the huge decline in turnout in the 2019 elections: for the first time since 1994, fewer than half SA’s eligible voters cast their ballots. Among registered voters, turnout fell from 73% in the previous national election in 2014, to 66% in 2019 — the biggest drop since 2004.
The further fall in turnout in the 2021 municipal polls exacerbates this trend, since turnout in municipal elections is generally lower than during national elections.
“The steady decline in voter participation raises important questions about the quality of civic engagement and citizen involvement in SA’s democratic politics as well as levels of voter apathy and mistrust in the political system,” Schulz-Herzenberg writes.
The paper shows that young people are largely checking out of the political system and that a lack of viable options among opposition parties is also a deterrent. “Negative evaluations of opposition parties in terms of who and what they represent, notwithstanding party affiliations, remain a serious impediment to voter participation.”
Former cabinet minister Valli Moosa says it is a bit early to make definitive conclusions about the 2021 elections in particular. But what is clear and concerning are the risks SA faces as the general populace becomes disenchanted with the political process.
Moosa is a member of the team mandated by parliament to investigate amending the Electoral Act to allow independent candidates to contest elections at national level. The idea is to bring that law in line with the constitution, but it’s also an opportunity to bring about much-needed electoral reform. But sadly, the ANC has shirked the opportunity, preferring the status quo and a minimalist approach to amending the law.
“The democratic system is designed around the voter and the citizen. Once people lose interest or confidence, the system cannot function and you risk being ruled by a minority government,” says Moosa.
Were that to happen, it could fuel instability as the legitimacy of government is eroded in the eyes of a citizenry who did not choose it.
This is but one risk SA faces as more voters check out of the system. It’s a matter of giving people a voice to express themselves in parliament vs “shooting each other in the streets”, he adds.
“I get very worried when I see such serious signs of alienation from the political process. It should not be taken lightly at all.” Moosa says young people want a more direct relationship between their vote and the person who gets into parliament to act as their voice.
“Our electoral system has reached a point where it needs reform and voters need the opportunity to feel they are more directly represented.”
The electoral law has to be amended by June next year, according to the Constitutional Court’s order. In the absence of real electoral reform, it is likely that the low turnout trend and the political alienation felt by millions will continue.
Once again, the ANC is likely to miss a chance to ensure more citizens are brought into the process — putting its own interests above those of voiceless South Africans.
But the result of the 2019 polls and its 2021 decline show that the electorate is punishing its selfishness.
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