In an election of uncertainties, hints at the likely result are few. But when they present themselves, they are gold for analysts. One such clue is the DA’s attack ad, hitting at ActionSA and its leader, Herman Mashaba. ActionSA was born in the aftermath of the DA’s leadership overhaul, after its horror-show electoral performance in 2019. Its frontman, Mashaba, had been the DA’s unlikely Joburg mayor, whose winning of the post was the shock of the 2016 polls. He was initially rejected by the EFF, who finally agreed to hand power to the DA through a "collaborative" deal.
In recent weeks, the DA has launched a full attack on ActionSA, in adverts on suburban radio stations. ActionSA is over the moon. The publicity is more than it can afford and it has revealed just how much of a threat the DA sees in the splinter party.
"You don’t spend millions on an irrelevant party," independent political analyst Dawie Scholtz tells the FM. "There must be some interesting things happening in the suburbs of Joburg for the DA to launch such a campaign and spend money on it."
Senior DA employees and leaders left the official opposition to follow Mashaba, including the party’s long-time Gauteng leader John Moodey. Under Moodey, the DA’s Gauteng support had grown because he championed on-the-ground activism. Added to this, the province’s sizeable middle class became increasingly turned off by Jacob Zuma’s ANC.
Moodey faced what he termed a trumped-up disciplinary hearing in the DA and eventually left the party after 22 years, taking some of his constituency along — together with his knowledge of its strengths and weaknesses. ActionSA is contesting only six municipalities — the three large Gauteng metros and eThekwini, KwaDukuza and Newcastle in KwaZulu-Natal. The FM understands that businessmen funded the party to contest the eThekwini metro.
Another DA advert betrays at least part of the story of this election: the DA vs ANC ad campaign. Scholtz says the DA is trying to frame the election as one in which the DA and ANC are the only players. "The DA is working hard to minimise the relevance of other parties, which are eating into their base," says Scholtz.
ActionSA is delighted about the DA’s attacks on it: this is giving it publicity it could not otherwise afford
The 2019 election and the by-elections at the end of last year and early 2021 showed smaller parties such as the Freedom Front Plus, the Patriotic Alliance and GOOD were eating into the DA’s base. Now, in Gauteng — which the DA has admitted it is concerned about — ActionSA says its own polling puts it ahead of the DA in the City of Joburg. This would be quite a feat for a fledgling party with limited resources and a new, unknown brand. It admits that the margin of error is significantly higher than the norm.
The Freedom Front Plus, too, previously told the FM it wasn’t relying too heavily on what internal polling showed due to the significant amount of unknown variables, even though it too is polling well against the DA. Scholtz notes that polls, especially those by parties themselves, are not as reliable in this election due to a number of new variables.
There is also a lack of any substantial by-election results in the run-up to November 1 to assess voter sentiment. Voter registration told a story of a higher turnout for the DA, while special votes indicated a higher turnout for the ANC.
As for the ANC, Scholtz says it too is strengthening its base in this election, a marked shift from 2019 when it focused considerable attention on the suburbs. It seems the big players are trying desperately to hold on to their share of the electorate in a political arena in flux. The 2014 election and its aftermath showed smaller parties in retreat, but 2019 showed a resurgence of these players.
While 2021 is anyone’s guess, there are a few clues pointing to a continuation of this trend.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.