The battle for control of the Tshwane metro is one of the most intensely fought of this year’s local government elections, with the DA and the ANC both pushing hard to win an outright majority rather than being forced to form a coalition.
Kgosi Maepa, chair of the ANC in Tshwane, says the party is optimistic about winning an absolute majority, while DA campaign manager Crezane Bosch says her party is also hoping for an outright win — but is concerned at the number of opposition parties in the running, which could split the DA’s vote.
Wouter Wessels, head of elections for the FF+, says his party has shown significant growth in the metro — it was the only party to increase its support in the Tshwane district in the 2019 national elections, as voters defected to it from the DA. Those elections marked a stunning setback for John Steenhuisen’s party.
The DA-run city has been a telling example of the way messy coalitions can hamper delivery and how provincial government interference in a metro’s administration can impede progress rather than boost it. The DA had a torrid time in Tshwane, since its majority rested on an ad hoc vote by the EFF, which it could not always rely on.
The past five years of coalition governments in the metro have been arduous for the DA. It has fielded four mayors in that time: the first, Solly Msimanga, was caught up in the multimillion-rand corruption scandal over a contract granted to the consultancy GladAfrica; his successor Stevens Mokgalapa had to quit amid a sex scandal over his liaison with a member of the mayoral committee; and the third mayor, Abel Tau, opted to join Herman Mashaba’s ActionSA.
The ANC-run province at one stage placed the metro under administration — unlawfully, according to the high court, the Supreme Court of Appeal and the Constitutional Court — which led to Tshwane being run by administrators for eight months.
The past five years of coalition governments in the metro have been arduous for the DA
During the last voter registration weekend, according to News24 electoral analyst Dawie Scholtz, the ANC registered more of its voters in its strongholds in Tshwane than the DA did.
It is no wonder the DA is worried. Steenhuisen has expressed concern about the party’s prospects in the capital in the coming polls, according to a report in the Sunday Times.
Bosch says 20 parties will contest the elections in the city, which is a recipe for an even more fractious, messier coalition process.
Wessels says his party’s own research indicates its support is growing in Tshwane, but he notes that opinion polls are unlikely to provide an accurate picture of what will actually happen — there are simply too many variables at play this year. For instance election day is a Monday, which means it falls at the end of a long weekend; and the constant threat of Covid could have an impact on turnout.
And there have been few by-elections that might have indicated which way voter sentiment is leaning.
Maepa, who was in opposition in the council over the past five years, says the ANC vote is "back" after many supporters abandoned the party in the 2016 elections, held while Jacob Zuma was still at the helm. In those elections, the ANC lost control of the metro and slipped into second place behind the DA.
But Maepa says the ANC’s performance in the Tshwane area in the national elections two years ago — it won 50.19% of the vote — shows that its supporters are returning to the fold.
Bosch says the DA would show the citizens of Tshwane that it can perform better if it is handed a mandate for complete control.
The race for the seat of the government is going to be one to watch.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.