It is hardly the epic electoral battle that is being faced by the US this week, but a string of simple local by-elections has SA political parties anxious. The anticipation is palpable as the Electoral Commission of SA prepares the country for its first taste of voter sentiment after one of the harshest lockdowns in the world.
On November 11, 444 candidates from 40 political parties will contest 95 by-elections across SA. This will provide the first indication of how the state’s handling of the pandemic will affect the ANC in the 2021 local government elections.
The ANC will be on trial for the lockdown, Covid-19 corruption, internal fighting, arrests, woeful handling of the economy, endless plans and no implementation, and the latest faux pas, which saw President Cyril Ramaphosa’s administration lambasted on social media for his unveiling of a statue of former ANC president Oliver Tambo at OR Tambo International Airport amid grinding economic conditions for citizens.
The DA, too, will be facing the electorate after its own attempt at an exorcism and rebirth at its national conference, and the EFF’s staying power will also be on show, as one of only a few parties which grew in support in 2019. Also, the EFF has been a key player in coalitions.
While by-elections have a lower turnout and are not quite as glamorous as full-blown local elections, these are being closely watched by political parties across the board, many of which have been rolling out their senior leaders to campaign.
In Gauteng, the DA will test its strength in three wards which it dominated during the 2016 local election. The by-elections take place after the DA’s elective conference, which is likely to confirm John Steenhuisen as its leader. Will the new-old DA resonate with the party’s base in 2020?
By-elections have lower turnouts but these are being closely watched by political parties across the board
Three wards in Joburg — Lenasia South, Lenasia and Riverlea — are being contested. The DA’s support there will provide an approval rating of sorts after the shift in its stance and leadership. DA Gauteng chief whip Mike Moriarty says the party hopes to retain its wards and the size of its caucuses, and grow in wards it is contesting.
"It is a small measure of voter sentiment before we go into local government elections next year," he says.
While he doesn’t expect any power shifts in the key metros in the province, the by-elections will still show how hard the DA will have to work to continue the gains registered in 2016 and to reverse the negative trend in its support experienced in the 2019 election and in by-elections thereafter.
In Gauteng there will be 14 by-elections, many in municipalities in which there was no outright winner in the 2016 local government elections.
This resulted in Gauteng metros being run by coalitions and co-operation agreements, many of which fell apart after the upheaval in the DA.
For the ANC, the by-elections will be equally telling. Its support in Gauteng dropped below 50% in 2016, to 46%. In the national election last year, its support in the province was just 50%.
Gauteng ANC head of elections Lebogang Maile says the party wants to retain and win seats in the by-elections, "so it can govern on its own". The ANC also wants to increase its majority in councils such as Ekurhuleni, which it held onto by a narrow margin in the 2016 local elections. The ANC has regained control of the City of Joburg, after the resignation of former DA mayor Herman Mashaba amid infighting in that party.
A key factor for Maile is the ANC’s image.
"When one runs elections, the ANC brand is critical for us, we want a sellable brand," he says.
After the dust settles and the November 11 lessons have been learnt, all eyes will turn to 2021.
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