Former president Jacob Zuma’s reaction when his preferred candidate, Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, lost to Cyril Ramaphosa by 179 votes was an unforgettable moment at Nasrec in 2017. Zuma was motionless, his arm stretched before him, his face expressionless.
Did he know that in just three short years he would go from being a leader backed by tens of thousands of supporters, who caused a "tsunami" ahead of his presidency, to being a yesterday’s man whose feverish statements and open letters are now cringeworthy in their impotence?
Zuma fought his many legal battles with politics as the main weapon in his arsenal. He is still doing so, and is being mimicked in this by ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule, who is using political tricks to try to pre-empt brushes with the law.
The political fight being waged by the so-called radical economic transformation faction is expected to come to a head at the ANC’s national general council (NGC) next year, with Zuma and Magashule likely to be the faction’s headline act.
But the political environment has changed dramatically for Zuma; and Magashule is unlikely to pull off a palace coup from the secretary-general’s office. To prevail at the NGC, the pair would need the support of ordinary ANC structures — but there is no reason members would back the spent force that is Zuma or, in Magashule’s case, a leader who would probably cost the ANC the loss of at least three provinces in the next elections.
The political environment is shifting both inside and outside the ANC, but what happens outside its ranks — particularly in terms of the verdict of voters in elections and the fate of the economy — will increasingly determine what happens internally.
Little did Zuma know he would become an ex-leader whose open letters are cringe-worthy in their impotence
Even support for Zuma from his own province, KwaZulu-Natal, is no longer guaranteed. Last week, Magashule went to the province to meet disgruntled members of the Umkhonto we Sizwe Military Veterans Association and others. At the same time, ANC members from the Free State demonstrated outside Luthuli House, some protesting against Magashule and others pitching up to support him.
An open letter circulated this week, purportedly penned by "a collective of concerned members" of the ANC and addressed to the party’s KwaZulu-Natal leadership, demands a special congress to discuss a "plot to have president Zuma expelled from the ANC".
The five-page letter accuses prominent ANC leaders who hail from the province of "plotting" to boost Ramaphosa’s popularity in KwaZulu-Natal and to discredit Zuma. The letter describes the national executive committee’s call for party members accused of corruption to step aside as a "nefarious scheme by Ramaphosa and his white monopoly capital handlers to lynch their political opponents within the ANC".
It contains one bizarre, unsubstantiated allegation against Ramaphosa after another, but says he will be dealt with at the NGC. It threatens provincial leaders that if they fail to convene a special congress to discuss the anti-Zuma "plot", branches would invoke their powers to remove the leaders from office.
Since Nasrec, key leaders of the ANC in the province have shifted closer to Ramaphosa, or rather they no longer actively oppose him, and the activities of those who back Magashule and Zuma in the province are a response to this. Expect this campaign to intensify as law enforcement entities close in on Magashule and Zuma’s legal woes deepen.
The ANC’s 2005 NGC was a turning point in Zuma’s favour ahead of his ascent to the presidency, but Magashule will need a miracle if he thinks the upcoming gathering will give his political fortunes a similar boost.
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