The presidency of Jacob Zuma gave SA a glimpse of global populism. The Bell Pottinger-inspired, ANN7-ventilated rhetoric that came to characterise a looting project disguised as radical economic transformation gave us a taste of this world populism, but the worst may be yet to come. With our main political parties in a state of flux, the future appears uncertain, as voter apathy continues to rise and fringe parties on the left and right of the political spectrum gain ascendance.
As we reflect on reviving the Rainbow Nation, it is clear that SA was in many ways ahead of the curve in terms of the populism that engulfed many parts of the world.
Populism espoused by leaders such as Winnie Madikizela-Mandela and Peter Mokaba, has historically existed inside the congress movement, led by the ANC.
No greater embodiment of populist demagoguery can be found in SA at present than the EFF — associated with ethnic nationalism, a militaristic posture, chauvinism, authoritarian control and clear fascist tendencies. This, too, has its roots in the ANC.
Strong currents of this particular flavour of populism continue to linger within the governing party.
Cyril Ramaphosa’s victory at Nasrec served, in the short term, to hold this tide at bay. His leadership over the next five years will determine if SA goes back to the path on which Zuma had set it, mainly during his second term, when his parasitic state capture project hit full steam — or if we can find another way.
So what is the lie of the land, and where to from here?
The EFF and the Freedom Front Plus, at opposite ends of the political spectrum, increased their share of the vote in the national elections in May, while the centre-left ANC and the centre-right DA lost support.
By all accounts, this trend has been replicated in by-elections since the May polls. Independent political analyst Dawie Scholtz showed in a recent News24 analysis of these by-elections, representing 177,000 voters, that the FF Plus continues to eat away at the DA’s support, while the EFF is gaining ground at the ANC’s expense — in fact, the trend is accelerating.
He notes that the Ramaphoria associated with a surge of goodwill towards the ANC, after his election at Nasrec in the run-up to the polls, may also be receding.
Ramaphosa’s renewal project has slowed in the state as well as in the party — though, as the SACP’s Jeremy Cronin points out, his hand is slowly strengthening in the party. This is a critical requirement to enact reforms, given his narrow win at Nasrec.
It is widely hoped that Ramaphosa’s new appointments and his changes within key state institutions — including the National Prosecuting Authority and the Hawks — would hasten the achingly slow pace of the clean-up he promised while on the campaign trail.
Consensus-seeking
Revitalising SA’s economy is his highest hurdle, one which has posed a particular challenge to the former unionist and businessman — partly due to his consensus-seeking approach at a time when decisiveness is required.
It is widely hoped that changes within key institutions will hasten the pace of the promised clean-up
In many ways, his approach somewhat mirrors that of Zuma when he first took power. Carol Paton wrote in the FM in 2007 ahead of Zuma’s ascent: "What Zuma is saying is that he will be looking for consensus in policymaking." This approach resulted in his message changing, depending on his audience — a strategy his successor, Ramaphosa, has also opted for.
Ramaphosa often notes how Nelson Mandela is the leader he hoped to emulate, but it was Mandela who said: "It is better to lead from behind and to put others in front, especially when you celebrate victory when nice things occur. You take the front line when there is danger."
That there is danger ahead is irrefutable.
The current economic conditions, with record unemployment levels, glaring inequality and a potential breakdown of the social contract between key stakeholders in the economy, create conditions ripe for populism.
The DA’s implosion in recent weeks could make the official opposition regress politically by a decade or so.
It could be argued that the DA is simply reaching the natural ceiling that was delayed by desperation among the electorate in the scandal-ridden Zuma era.
The EFF may also have reached its ceiling, particularly so if its leaders, Julius Malema and Floyd Shivambu, face prosecution for the stream of allegations of looting associated with the VBS Mutual Bank heist.
Renewal of the ANC is a long shot and Cronin says the "jury is very strongly out" on whether it can achieve this.
Through the erosion of established parties, intolerable levels of violence (acutely against women and children), coupled with dysfunctional institutions, fertile ground for a new populist demagogic project is being created.
SA is again on the brink and any hope of averting this populist descent requires a leader who recognises that these are indeed dangerous times and, as such, leads from the front.
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