The nature of international relations was accurately described in 1848 by then British prime minister Henry Palmerston, when he remarked: “We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are internal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow.”
Indeed, as the world witnesses the reshaping of geopolitical realities, this maxim assumes renewed significance.
The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 marked a transformative moment in international relations. The previously bipolar system, characterised by the actions and alliances of the US and the Soviet Union, underwent a shift to a unipolar framework. In this new configuration, the US emerged as the hegemon of the international arena; it exercised sufficient influence to shape the world across military, economic, cultural and technological dimensions.
However, the US’s overestimation of its military might as a catalyst for political change has become evident. Though the country will remain a great power for many years, just how influential it will be will hinge on its capacity to address internal challenges rather than foreign policy. That’s because the primary sources of American decline appear more rooted in domestic matters than in international ones.
With US hegemony on the wane, counterbalancing powers are rising to fill the gap.
The ongoing shift towards multipolarity, where multiple great powers coexist, has arguably been more transformative than events in pre-war history. The incorporation into the G20 of the Brics bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), support for Brics to play a more prominent role in the UN Security Council and quota reforms at international financial institutions to redress voting asymmetries are ways to represent contemporary geopolitical realities more adequately.
Recognising that other major developing economies will maintain considerable global influence in the foreseeable future, the rising emerging powers may not necessarily aim to establish a radically different world order. But the changing international currents present opportunities for the increased participation in decision-making that is necessary to address global threats such as financial instability, epidemics and climate change. This can be achieved by exerting influence over the conduct of the most powerful nations and enhancing the position of emerging powers in the global political hierarchy.
South Africa in the world
In the 1990s, when South Africa emerged as a democratic nation, it wielded moral and material influence after negotiating a peaceful end to apartheid. Its recent positions in the global arena, however, have sparked controversy.
To re-establish its international standing, South Africa must reflect on the factors behind its decline. It should also present alternative policies and practices that offer sustainable solutions to current challenges and address the domestic shortcomings that affect its capacity to deliver.
Without this, South Africa may find itself isolated. And that, warns Barry R Posen, director of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s security studies programme, “is perhaps the most dangerous situation in multipolarity”.
Strengthening governance ... and creating an environment in which the private sector can flourish are vital steps
On this score, South Africa can draw insights from India’s diplomatic neutrality. The South Asian country continues to deepen co-operation with the West, as seen by its participation in the Quad Leaders’ Summit and the G7 gathering in May. Simultaneously, it has chaired its first meeting of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation, strengthening ties with emerging nations. It will be hosting the G20 Leaders’ Summit in September, where it will champion the voice of the Global South.
India’s dexterity with regard to divisive geopolitical issues such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enables it to prioritise its own economic interests while concentrating on collective global concerns. In its 2024 budget, for example, it announced a set of proactive investment plans to grow the economy, highlighting that domestic policies remain a key area of focus, despite the country’s growing international stature.
The significance of diplomacy transcends the emerging world and extends to countries such as France and the UK. These nations are increasingly realising the importance of balancing their interests with China with those with their traditional ally, the US.
In this maelstrom, South Africa’s diplomatic prowess assumes heightened importance. Its membership in the Brics bloc should not imply an anti-Western stance. Instead, our leaders should recognise the continued significance of Western economies for South Africa’s growth while also fostering economic and political adaptability in a reshaped geopolitical context.
To reclaim its position on the global stage effectively, South Africa must address its internal shortcomings. Strengthening governance, resolving structural logistic bottlenecks, providing regulatory clarity, bolstering trade relations in Southern Africa and creating an environment in which the private sector can flourish are vital steps towards a prosperous and equitable future. Such achievements require unwavering political will and commitment — attributes South Africa previously demonstrated in effecting momentous transformative change.
* Packirisamy is an economist with Momentum Investments
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.