Whether the ANC’s 55th national elective conference next weekend proceeds as planned or degenerates into chaos, history will mark the event as an important milestone in the prolonged disintegration of the party that once stood like a colossus astride South African politics.
Of course, the ANC’s final demise is still a considerable way off. As former DA leader Tony Leon used to say (with apologies to Harold Wilson): the weak are a long time in politics.
Even if President Cyril Ramaphosa emerges triumphant at Nasrec, as he almost certainly will, the party will be left mortally wounded on the battlefield, a near-carcass circled by scavengers. There is still enough meat on those bones to attract bottom feeders fighting for their turn to eat. This messy spectacle will continue for the foreseeable future.
At catalytic moments such as this, it is valuable to pause, look back and ask how we got here and where we are headed.
Having read and reflected a lot on the rise and decline of political parties, I have come to a simple conclusion: a political party in a democracy starts to die when it can no longer define its core idea; when it loses sight of its political purpose. It may still be in power, but its demise is a foregone conclusion.
When the glue of a higher purpose dissolves, there is little left to hold the factional power brokers together except the prospect of winning the brutal contest for control and the spoils that come with it.
Most ANC loyalists will still say, without a hint of irony, that their party stands for “a nonracial, nonsexist South Africa that belongs to all who live in it”. Yet everything the ANC does shows how disconnected this lofty ideal — and its associated political project — are from South Africa’s reality.
The Phala Phala saga has sent a seismic shock through our politics because it raises the question: was Ramaphosa no different from the rest?
For the past 15 years, at least, the core purpose of ANC politics has been to retain control of the interlocking criminal syndicates throughout the state, with tentacles deep into the private sector.
Despite this, the “liberation dividend” has been sufficient to keep the party in power. Voters have been prepared to forgive a dysfunctional state because of their debt of gratitude to the ANC.
This level of loyalty led many observers to conclude that the ANC could never be beaten at the polls, and that the best possible outcome for South Africa would be an ethical leader rising to the top of the party, to clean house and save the country.
This mood accounted for the tidal wave of Ramaphoria that swept Ramaphosa into the presidency following the 2019 election. However, those who knew how the ANC is structured, how its decisions are taken, and the extent to which cadre deployment has compromised the state, realised that the ANC could never save itself, let alone the country.
A turning point
The Phala Phala saga has sent a seismic shock through our politics because it raises the question: was Ramaphosa no different from the rest?
When fundamental existential questions emerge in a democracy, the solution is to call an election and let the voters chart a way forward.
The ANC’s response to the DA’s call for an election will be based on the timing that best suits its own prospects. But no matter how long the party delays, it cannot credibly rekindle a higher purpose. Beyond holding together the patronage network, it has no real idea what it stands for.
And that makes inevitable the political realignment of the country.
Out of the vast array of South African political parties, there are two that know exactly what they stand for: the DA and the EFF.
The DA’s political project is the attainment of an “open, opportunity-driven society for all” based on constitutionalism and the rule of law; nonracialism; a social market economy; and the separation between the party and a capable state, staffed by meritocratic appointments.
When the glue of a higher purpose dissolves, there is little left to hold the factional power brokers together except the prospect of winning the brutal contest for control and the spoils that come with it
The EFF also knows what it stands for. The “national democratic revolution” is shorthand for a system in which the party controls the state, and the state controls the economy and society. It is a roadmap to a totalitarian form of racial nationalism.
Since the formation of the EFF in 2013, it has been clear that the real battle for South Africa’s future will be waged between the visions of the DA and the EFF — between the radical economic transformation/EFF forces on one side, and the DA as a magnet for constitutionalists on the other.
The ANC, a menacing amorphous blob between these stark ideological contrasts, will erode over time, breaking towards one side or the other.
What seems like a moment of great crisis could turn out to offer great opportunity, if we recognise the underlying forces that are redefining our politics.
* Zille is chair of the DA’s federal council
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