OpinionPREMIUM

MARC HASENFUSS: What now for HCI?

Shares in Hosken Consolidated Investments are up 40% this year, but future gains now hinge on what happens to its stake in Namibia’s potentially mammoth Venus oil prospect

Johnny Copelyn. Picture: ESA ALEXANDER/THE SUNDAY TIMES
Johnny Copelyn. Picture: ESA ALEXANDER/THE SUNDAY TIMES

Two interviews for Business Day TV last week were probably more than I can handle. Blessed with a face for radio and sans the gift of the gab, I don’t exactly enjoy the camera. I cringe watching the replays — even if my wife, who manages to watch the episodes from start to finish, is the kindest critic.

She did, however, urge me not to conduct interviews in my untidy office, with a portrait of Henry Miller looming large in the background. On Thursday I discussed last week’s cover story on the complications of corporate corruption in South Africa. Tough gig! But for once, I felt reasonably comfortable and vaguely articulate. Maybe relocating to the lounge had set me at ease.

Prattling on, I did not at first hear the guttural wheezes emanating from the nearby recliner. It’s a cardinal rule in television not to glance away from the (laptop) camera. But I had to peek to my left. There was Dexter, our beefy mastiff/Jack Russell cross, hunchbacked like Quasimodo and trying his level best to hack up a hairball. He can work up to quite a crescendo.

I raised the level of my voice to drown out his awful rasping. But to no avail. Dexter was determined to belt out the Tom Waits songbook at Ramones tempo. There was a bowl of bananas and tangerines just behind my laptop. I thought that if I leant forward carefully, I could clutch some soft fruit and conk Dexter hard enough to at least temporarily halt the hairball heave. The thought of my face lurching close up into the frame dissuaded me. Hopefully without losing my train of thought, I loosened the Skechers on my left foot and surreptitiously flicked the sneaker in the general direction of that dastardly hound.

I have never been much of a left-footer and the Skechers sailed high and wide, hooking on the lounge chandelier. But it worked a treat: the Skechers of Damocles. A duly intimidated Dexter ambled off. So slick was the execution that I can’t pick up the flick watching the television replay — though it might have been covered by a timely edit.

Less slick was my attempted drop volley on set point on Saturday against Fish Hoek. The uncharacteristic fluff cost us the match. On the rare occasions that metronomic Ronnie v’t Hof mistimes a forehand, you make very sure to capitalise on it.

Do you drop or go for the big shot? The share is up more than 40% so far this year. Can it go higher — or has the easy money been made?

Speaking of capitalising on opportunities, what is to be done about Hosken Consolidated Investments (HCI)? Do you drop or go for the big shot? The share is up more than 40% so far this year. Can it go higher — or has the easy money been made?

I attended the firm’s AGM last Friday and CEO Johnny Copelyn, who always graciously opens the meeting to as many questions as possible from shareholders, was peppered with inquiries about its oil and gas interests. Copelyn was as forthright as he could be, under the circumstances.

What I can say, with a fair bit of certainty, is that HCI intends selling its stake in the Venus block off the Namibian coast. HCI has invested $220m (about R3.7bn) in its oil endeavours held through 49.9%-owned subsidiary Impact Oil & Gas. This is the main reason for the group’s debt levels of $150m (about R2.8bn). Copelyn is hopeful HCI will see a competitive bidding process for its significant minority stake in Venus — where Impact owns 20% — once the latest appraisal processes are completed in the next couple of months.

HCI’s annual report, released a few weeks back, already hoped the proceeds from such a deal would at least extinguish the remaining debt, which opens the possibility for unbundlings, increased dividend flows and perhaps share buybacks later on.

Perhaps the most telling utterance at the AGM was Copelyn’s contention that whoever buys this stake will potentially need to put $8bn into the Venus development and “on top of that, they have got to pay us something”. He added: “There are not a lot of companies in the world that can contemplate a $10bn investment into a 20% stake in someone else’s business.” Those are big numbers, and readers can infer what they want.

HCI’s share price was fairly muted after the AGM. I’m not sure why. Maybe it’s because this is the first big investment exit by HCI since selling its stake in cellular services provider Vodacom more than 20 years ago (and leaving aside the retreat from beverages group Clover). Maybe the market is less enamoured with the possibility that HCI might not receive an enormous portion of the Venus stake sale in cash, but rather in the form of a long-term royalty arrangement. 

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