OpinionPREMIUM

MARC HASENFUSS: When markets bark, beware wallet burn

This market seems to be all about tactical withdrawals and heartbreak, and this was the case even before Eskom put the economy on the fritz

Picture: BLOOMBERG
Picture: BLOOMBERG

Bull-booi, the Jack Russell, is no more. On Sunday he gave one last desperate charge around the pool to shoo off the baboon troop, and then, instead of alertly standing guard, he uncharacteristically retired to his basket. His little heart gave out in the early hours of Monday. He never gave as much as a bark or a whimper. Stoic to the end, the tough little bugger.

In his long life he confronted cobras, was twice run over by speeding drivers in Lighthouse Road, corralled porcupines, swam with otters and — being such a handsome specimen — survived numerous “dognappings” by local do-gooders. He snatched my brother-in-law’s Sunday roast, deposited moles in our bed and once even tore into an imposing hardcover volume of Evelyn Waugh’s best-known works.

My abiding memory is of Bull-booi escaping the property when a large troop of baboons were foraging in the vicinity. Violence was certainly to be expected. We searched high and low. Much later I saw the baboon troop moving languidly up Slangkop. Fearing an inevitable ambush I scrambled up the road to intercept him. But instead, I stumbled on a scruffy — but immensely proud — Jack Russell trotting calmly among a troop of surprisingly placated primates. It took a fair bit of encouragement to extricate him.

Frozen assets

Speaking of tactical withdrawals and heartbreak, this market has been downright confounding. I suffered third-degree wallet burn when I used an American ETN to short the Nasdaq, which prompted a tactical retreat into the dour domain of the Global X SuperDividend Fund last week. Maybe I can rather dribble the monthly distributions into a short? Generally, I remain aloof of the equity markets — which was really great when watching Naspers/Prosus on the bloody charge. But I fear for the local economy under the load-shedding frizzle.

I fear for the local economy under the load-shedding frizzle

I have seen smaller retailers simply shutting up shop, and there are reports on social media that some larger retail chains are occasionally drawing down the security shutters when the power goes out. Reports are also coming through of spoilt food on refrigerated shelves — something I can attest to, as my own sprawling refrigeration infrastructure does not cope with the 4½-hour outages. I am stuffing as much as I can in the freezer, but yoghurts, spreads and sauces are at constant risk.

In a thin-margined retail business — where, don’t forget, appetising presentation is key — such supply chain complications will be testing. I also can’t imagine the food production companies, whose costs of staving off persistent interruptions to the production lines must be mounting, being ensured a bountiful 2023.

In short, I’d say my (very) limited equity exposure might best be described as “energetic special situations”. So my two biggest positions are Reunert and Hosken Consolidated Investments (HCI).

As regards Reunert, I probably don’t have to articulate again why I regard this as the purest hedge against Eskom’s woes.

While HCI’s mainstay operational assets (gaming, hotels, transport, industrial equipment, media) won’t escape the fallout from load-shedding, there is a bustling coal business and the prospects of a credible number finally being put on Impact Oil’s share of the Venus gas and oil discovery off the Namibian coast.

I still hold a small position in RECM & Calibre because its main asset, Goldrush, offers the cleanest gaming play on the JSE. I also have been accumulating shares in Mahube Infrastructure, a wind and solar play that kicks out a really nice dividend and trades at a hefty discount to audited NAV.

Acsion, the property company, is pending a takeout … though it’s a little frustrating that no details of the mooted offer have been tabled yet. I thankfully still have Nictus Beperk shares (replete with share certificate), which are listed on the Namibian Stock Exchange. It has paid dependable dividends for many years, but I’m wondering how Nictus might benefit if the Namibian economy is recharged by the huge find at Venus. And then there’s little old Kibo Energy, for which I can offer no justification save that I remain optimistic that one day a long-shot penny stock will pay out for me.

The beginning of the year is always hard on the household finances — what with school fees and university costs, not to mention budgeting for industrial-strength inverters and solar solutions. The price of tennis balls is worrying too. If I did have the odd rand lying around, I would certainly still be watching car hire business Zeda, with adventurous tourists zipping around prime holiday destinations. There is debt, but bumper interim cash flows to end-March might provide reassurance about degearing and sustained dividend payments.

Someone also piqued my interest in HomeChoice, which is still trading at a rating given to a niche retailing enterprise rather than a vibrant fintech business. I certainly won’t be forgetting about liquor group Distell and the enticing optionality on the whisky/gin assets in the still to be approved Heineken takeover.​

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