You remember January 2025?
Yes, nine months ago we were speculating about the meaning of Trump 2.0, the Israeli bombardment of Palestine, the future of the GNU, AI and the rise of the Right across the globe. The world was in flux. We didn’t realise then just how deep and immediate these risks were.
What political and economic risks do we face now to the end of the year, and how do we prepare for 2026 given the tectonic geopolitical shifts taking place globally? How do we ensure that 2026 is not as much of a shock to business and society as the past nine months have been?
First, the clash of world views and ideologies that have roiled the world recently are still in antagonistic motion.
We are caught in the middle of an ideological, economic, political and cultural war. That means the deep divisions and changes we have seen globally this year will continue into 2026 and beyond, worsened by the ideological intransigence of Russian President Vladimir Putin on the one hand, the incoherent policymaking and flip-flopping of US President Donald Trump on the other, and the indecisive and goalless governance of President Cyril Ramaphosa in the middle.
Second, we should be prepared to see even worse outcomes to global crises than we may have expected. Wars in Africa and elsewhere (take Ukraine and Israel-Gaza) are longer and more brutal. Starvation of children to achieve political goals has become normal.
So, what are the biggest risks we should prepare for as we wind the year down and prepare for 2026?
The Right is on the rise and will influence US policy towards South Africa
- The GNU has failed to hold the ANC accountable and to introduce a swift and serious reform programme. The South African economy should be headed for 2%-plus growth this year based on better Eskom performance, positive sentiment and GNU policy implementation. It grew by a paltry 0.8% in the second quarter. That is atrocious for a country with our population growth and a 33% unemployment rate. If no improvement is apparent, 2026 may well be worse as politicians focus on local elections and not the economic crisis.
- Crime lords and corrupt politicians have infiltrated the police at the highest levels. Lawlessness grips the country. Institutions such as the Hawks, the National Prosecuting Authority and others are failing. Corruption and targeted killings are endemic. This is a national security threat.
- Trump, after failing to humiliate and vanquish Ramaphosa at the White House in May, will not stop his campaign to punish and belittle South Africa. Trump is not coming to the G20 presidency handover to his country and is sending his deputy, JD Vance, instead. The US leader inherited a robust economy, but his policies have ensured that job creation is down, growth is stalling and prices are beginning to tick up. Crucially, the Jeffrey Epstein paedophilia scandal refuses to go away. Countries such as South Africa will find themselves being pushed around as Trump attempts to deflect attention from this one big scandal among his many. The Trump pain is not finished yet for South Africa.
- Rise of the Right: The assassination of one of its leading lights, Charlie Kirk, in the US last week showed what a global resurgence this movement has had. In South Africa, individuals and organisations at the heart of influencing recent US government policy towards South Africa behaved as if their own leader had been killed. South Africa’s post-1994 dispensation is anathema to this movement, so its advance in the US and elsewhere is bad news for the country. Make no mistake, the Right is on the rise and will influence US policy towards South Africa.
- Gen Z: We should all watch what’s happening in Nepal, Indonesia, Kenya, Togo, Mozambique and other countries where young people are rebelling against corruption and unresponsive leaders. South Africa’s youth have tolerated unemployment, neglect and poor prospects while corruption has spiralled. When will they explode?
- AI will upend our world in ways our government has not yet even imagined.
- Bright spots in the economy and society: Walmart has announced a big new push into South Africa, while Bafana Bafana and the Springboks showed finesse on the field. These small wins are huge and meaningful. They should be built on, in the way Nelson Mandela used sport in the 1990s.
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