The fragile, year-old GNU has entered a new and dangerous phase. The main players, supposedly the “adults in the room”, are indulging in a risky game of tit-for-tat. The one party acts irrationally, the other reacts angrily, and the foundations of the GNU shake.
It means the probability of the coalition government collapsing any minute, any day, with no guarantee of what the future looks like, is high. It makes for a challenging, uncertain and unstable investment climate. We don’t need it.
After President Cyril Ramaphosa last week fired the deputy minister of trade, industry & competition, DA deployee Andrew Whitfield, the party threatened “grave consequences”.
DA leader John Steenhuisen issued an ultimatum demanding the sacking of two ANC ministers and a deputy minister, saying that if this didn’t happen “all bets are off” — which many interpreted as a threat to quit the GNU.
But in the end the DA merely decided to boycott the upcoming national dialogue and withdraw support for the budgets of the two ministers, Nobuhle Nkabane of higher education and Thembi Simelane of human settlements.
The ANC has reserved its right to embark on a similar boycott of the budgets of DA ministers.
City Press reports that influential ANC leaders are demanding that the DA be kicked out of the GNU. The DA has also threatened a motion of no confidence against Ramaphosa. If such a motion passed (a real possibility because the ANC has only 40% of the seats in parliament), it could collapse the GNU and trigger a new election of the president by MPs.
The uncertainty hangs over South Africa like a dark cloud at a time when the country needs booming business and consumer confidence
Much of this might never happen, but the uncertainty hangs over South Africa like a dark cloud at a time when the country needs booming business and consumer confidence to increase economic growth and reduce unemployment.
The DA has now rolled over numerous times to the ANC. It was undermined on the budget when it learnt only hours in advance that there would be a huge VAT hike; its objections on National Health Insurance and the Basic Education Laws Amendment Act have been swatted aside; and its leaders’ calls for Ramaphosa to consult more thoroughly on various issues have been ignored.
There is possibly nothing worse in negotiations than drawing a definitive line in the sand, as Steenhuisen did with his 48-hour ultimatum. It is a tactical error. It paints one into a corner and leaves no way out for yourself or other parties in the negotiation. It forces confrontation.
Ramaphosa was forced to respond, and he did so by making it clear that he would not cave in to ultimatums. Steenhuisen was now in an unenviable position: any action short of walking out of the GNU would come across as weakness. And so it has turned out.
The consequence is that Steenhuisen is a wounded figure in the DA. With leadership elections looming, he faces a heightened whispering campaign from within his ranks.
The Whitfield saga weakens the DA in future negotiations with the ANC. How many times can you issue ultimatums? Every time the DA fails to act on its threats, it cements its status as a poodle of the major party. The DA might as well not be in the GNU. If it stays, it faces derision and loss of support.
The formation of the GNU offered investors certainty and stability, but the fact that the DA may now walk out, or be fired by the ANC, introduces uncertainty and policy risk.
There is a silver lining, though. Throughout these shenanigans most ANC leaders are wooing centrist parties ActionSA and Build One South Africa, with their minuscule parliamentary representation, to join the GNU. There is no credible talk of a tie-up with the MK Party, despite a few ANC voices supporting this. There is little likelihood of an ANC-MK-EFF coalition emerging.
It would be a tragedy if a medieval entity such as Jacob Zuma’s party (it operates on family ties and regional and tribal loyalties) came anywhere near the levers of power.
Whatever happens, the present arrangements are fragile. Change may be coming.
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